Tuesday 11th March

The Champion Hurdle

The highlight of day one and a race which has a key stat where age is concerned – avoid five year olds like the plague, all of the last nine winners have been aged between six and nine. Other stats to take note of; eight of the last nine had won last time out and seven of the last nine have been trained in Ireland.

Katchit is one of my favourite horses in training but he is probably one for next year’s race rather than this with no Triumph Hurdle winner having won the Champion Hurdle the following season since 1967 but I still except him to run a decent race.

One horse that meets a lot of the trend criteria and is a decent each way price at around the 16/1 mark is Catch Me. His form isn’t rock solid but he is suited by coming off a strong pace and he’s sure to get that at Cheltenham.

The front two in the market make little appeal to me, especially Sizing Europe at 2/1. Admittedly, his last two performances have been impressive visually but for me he doesn’t warrant being such a short price. Osana should not be discounted.

Of the others, Harchibald would be likely to get worried/battled out of a finish but I expected him to be bang there at the finish on the bridle coming off a strong pace. If Carberry can time his challenge right at the last second he might just nick it cheekily.

Ebaziyan’s form this season has been poor but I just feel this has been the only target and he’s not been seen at Cheltenham since last year’s mightily impressive victory in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, he could well be in the places.

Recommended Bets

Back Catch Me e/w at 20/1 with Bet365

Back Harchibald to win at 9/1 with Totesport

Back Ebaziyan e/w at 33/1 with VC Bet

Supreme Novices Hurdle

Trends point us strongly in the direction of the Irish and also towards a horse that has won last time out. Captain Cee Bee really took the eye last time out and fits from a trends point of view.

Recommended Bets

Back Captain Cee Bee at 9/1 with Coral

Captain Cee Bee won 17/2

Wednesday 12th March

The Champion Chase

Possibly not the strongest renewal and a couple of new faces at the head of the market in Twist Magic and Master Minded. Twist Magic probably has the best form in the race and you can ignore his defeat last time out on ground that just did not suit, his performance in the Tingle Creek when beating last year’s Champion Chase winner Voy Por Ustedes was scintillating. Of the two though, I prefer Master Minded. He also beat Voy Por Ustedes last time out but that was only his third start in this country and it looked like there was plenty more to come.

The worry is five year olds have a very poor record in this race and if looking for an each way alternative My Way De Solzen makes a fair bit of appeal if he doesn't go for the World Hurdle. Last year’s Arkle winner has two disappointing efforts to his name this season but his record at Cheltenham is superb and he also has a key trend in has favour in that 9 of the last 10 Arkle winners have gone on to be 1st or 2nd in this race the following year.

Recommended Bets

Back Master Minded at 11/4 with Sportingbet

Back My Way De Solzen e/w at 20/1 with Skybet

Master Minded won 3/1

Royal and Sun Alliance Chase

Only one of the last twelve favourites have won this race but there have been quite a few that were between 2nd and 4th fav in that period. Finishing 1st or 2nd last time out is key, as is being aged 7 or 8. Albertas Run meets all our criteria as well as being a winner at Cheltenham earlier in the season.

Recommended Bets

Back Albertas Run at 6/1 with Paddy Power

Albertas Run won 4/1

Thursday 13th March

The World Hurdle

A very warm favourite here in the shape of the admirable Inglis Drever. Second only to the Mighty Baracouda of the long distances hurdlers of recent times, he is a model of consistency and certainly the one to beat but is he unbeatable?

The trends tell us we want a hold up horse between 6 and 8 years old with a top four finish last time out – all of which applies to Inglis Drever. I know it’s very obvious and no price but I just can’t make a case for any of the others to beat him.

Of the Irish contenders, Kazal could still be a bit of each way value after coming right back to form at Navan last time.

Recommended Bets

Back Inglis Drever at Evs with Betfred

Back Kazal e/w at 25/1 with VC Bet

Inglis Drever won 11/8

Kazal 3rd 12/1

Friday 14th March

The Gold Cup

The race the whole of the betting public is most looking forward to with the clash of the titans in last year’s winner Kauto Star and stable mate Denman. Most bookmakers can’t split them and I’m also struggling. It’s hard to pick holes in the form of either animal and it’s even harder to find something to put up against them.

With a gun to my head I would side with Kauto simply for the fact I think he’s got more of a turn of foot which could prove crucial. Denman is a machine and the way he destroyed his rivals in the Aon Chase was pretty special but Kauto has consistently beaten the top 3 mile Chasers for the last few years and Denman still has to prove he can win a Gold Cup.

If Exotic Dancer is fully fit and connections revert to the hold up tactics that served him so well last season, he’ll be the one to take 3rd spot. From a sentimental point of view I’d love Kicking King to run a big race but on the evidence of his last two runs, he’ll need a miracle to get close to the big two.

Recommended Bets

Back Kauto Star at 5/4 with Stan James

Back Exotic Dancer e/w at 14/1 with Coral

Triumph Hurdle

Very had to see past the favourite Franchoek here. Has all of the keys trends in his favour including having won last time out and having won at least two races. Serabad is a solid e/w bet and can chase Franchoek home.

Recommended Bets

Back Franchoek at 5/2 with BlueSq

Back Serabad e/w at 25/1 with Betfred

Cheltenham Free Bets

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