the Oaks
With the final declerations in, Jockey bookings made and non-runner no bets available I'm going to attempt to work out the Oaks and Derby. I already have made plenty of bets on both races, some good, some bad and it is very hard not to let them cloud any judgement but I'll try. Anyway here goes, over the last 15 years a clear majority of fillies that have won or been placed in the Oaks have been bred with true middle distance profile. Saddlers Wells has an amazing influence on the race and the Northern Dancer line is massive. There are a few sired by top quality miler sires like Danehill and Kingmambo but these are the very best of sires and there is a considerable influence of stamina from the dam side. Only Kalypso Katie 2nd in 2000 and Shadayid 3rd in 1991 have something like sprint pedigrees, with Kalypso Katie the Dam again bringing considerable stamina. Shadayid's result of 3rd to the 50/1 Jet Ski lady when it went of at evens could be considered a relatively poor result. So I'm looking at some of those at the top of the market with some scheptisim. So in race card order...
High Heeled: Well they must think something of her to leave her in the race after been beaten into forth in the Musidora, but I don't think the owners are going to have too many chances at a classic so they probably wanted to have their day in the sun. High Chap's progeny don't appear to have quite the brilliance of their dad and I'm afraid that is where this one sits for me. The ground isn't going to be too different from at York so I can't make a case for her. my price 20/1
Midday: This is a tricky one, I wish I'd taken the price before her Lingfield run just for the security but I can't see how the daughter of a sprinter, whose best progeny are milers, at most, can really see out the oaks trip. I know Henry Cecil is a genius specially with fillies and I know the Lingfild trial is over nearly the full mile and a half, but have a look at the time and what happend. Unnefer was a second under standard for the 10 furlong race that day, while Midday was 2.8 seconds slow. I think the slow pace really suited the horse letting it show its speed. It also didn't help the others who struggled with bend and the slope at that speed. If the Oaks is run at a dawdle then Midday has a great chance but I can't see that happening. With a true run race I say it doesn't stay. It might pick up passed beaten horses for a place but there are classic types in the race that should make it impossible for it to win. my price 8/1
Oh Goodness Me: This is where I need someones advice, no matter how many times John Francolm or someone points out what it is about a horse's action that means they need soft ground, or they'd like it rattling firm. I just don't see it. I can't pick them in the paddock either, I haven't been brought up with horses so I just don't see it. So the question, is there something about this filly's action that means it needs soft ground. All but one of its runs have been on soft but I see no obvious bending of the knees. I'm going to stick my neck out and say the ground alone wasn't the problem in the French Guineas. The problem was the incredible pace shown by the winner. Oh Goodness me has a middle distance pedigree and had been running over 9 furlongs before dropping back to the mile. It has been beaten too often to be one you'd want to go mad over but some of those defeats have come with some credit. It made a lot of the running in the Irish guineas without slowing, it just couldn't keep up with the mile bred winner. It was beaten by Mourayan but the allowance for fillies isn't great and that horse has been running in pretty good company. Jim Bolger might not be everyones cup of tea but I think he is top draw when it comes to getting the most out of the horses he's got. I see this as a real live one and still very overpriced in a pretty mediocre Oaks, my best bet of the race. My price 8/1
Perfect Truth: This is another hard one to phathom, still a maiden after 7 starts, then it goes out and beats the course record at chester. Galileo out of a Darashaan mare sounds good even if the mare and other progeny failed to impress. It is also interesting that Mrs O'Brien has handed over ownership to the Magniers now the big race has come around and couple with that Ladbrokes don't want to know about your money for it, they offer only 7/1 when 10/1 is available elsewhere. I'd say there are plenty of folk expecting this one to follow up and leave the poor early form behind. I like her but I can't get away from her being beaten by Indiana Gal who finished 21 lengths behind Oh Goodness Me. My price 7/1
Phillipina: Well I'd never normally be making any sort of case for a maiden winning a classic but if Perfect Truth broke the track record at Chester so would have Phillipina they finished in a tight photo. Reports from her first couple of races suggest she wanted further, and although Medician produces milers the Dam ended up running over 2 miles so it could be that the Oaks trip is suitable. I see Phillipina have more chance to improve again for the Chester run than Perfect Truth so I do see why there has been a plundge. I like her chances but I still couldn't go mad on her and the price is much less attractive than it once was. My price 6/1
Rainbow View: If there is a truely exceptional filly in the field this is it. The performances as a 2 year old were scintilating and I always thought her breeding and the races planned suggested she was more of an Oaks than Guineas prospect. But then the questions have come, What happened in the guineas, john Gosden is one of the trainers I'd actually trust and if he says it was the ground I believe him, but Epsom hasn't seen a drop of rain for an age. They watered on Tuesday and giving it a couple more mls tonight but its good to firm for big streches and if she hated it last time she won't be any happier this time.
There is also a bit of a question about exactly what she beat as a 2 year old, when she cruised passed Fantasia that seemed to be the stamp of total quality but Fantasia's colours were also lowered in France, the times of the wins could also be questioned. I figuered the desire to run in the breeders cup was a sign that a summer campaign was on the cards and the guineas was not the priority, but it could also be argued that it was to get everything possible as a 2 year old because she didn't have the scope of some of her contemories. For all I've said I still think she has the most potential of any in the race and For racing I hope she wins in some style. Even with all the potential holes I still make her favorite but it says as much about the weakness of the others as it does about her strengths. My price 3/1
Sariska: I'm more of a fan of Pivitol than I am of Oasis Dream but I'm still not convinced this is the pedigree of a Oaks winner. The Dam side does bring some hope with the Dam putting in her best performance over 14 furlongs winning a listed race. But just like Midday the Lingfield trial the time was shown to be not so great by another performance Moonquake was 1.2 seconds faster carrying an extra 8lbs that day. At the time the opposition looked very strong but Enticement misses the race and Star Ruby wasn't considered worthy of supplimenting. Her run in the Fred Darling did suggest she wanted further but I also think she showed enough speed to make me thing 10 furlongs might be the optimum rather than the Oaks, Sariska is a nice filly but I couldn't back her as the favourite. My price 5/1
The Miniver Rose: Is a nice horse with some solid form but exposed enough for all to see she surely can't be winning the Oaks. With so many doubts about many in the race it might not be a bad idea to have a place only bet on this one but I'm inclided to think she'll not be that involved. My price 25/1
Tottie: Beaten twice by Enticement, who swerves the race, I can't really give this one much hope, the big prices available are probably about right. My price 80/1
Wadaat: some wag on the racing post message board said something like 'look up Clive Brittian in the dictionary and the definition is tilting a windmills' its a bit strong but it made me laugh. I don't know if this one is such a crazy tilt. The race record is patchy but no horse is going in unbeaten, I guess its what do you make of Italian Guineas form. If its really so poor why don't all our trainers get themselves over there and pick up the £85k that Clive did for 2nd, only a nose off 196k for winning and Italian Oaks. Her run at Chester was so bad I'm inclined to discount it, even still it looks a tall order but I'm more inclinded to agree with those who think she has some type of hope. My price 28/1
With its best performance by some way the front running one and the abscence of another Ballydoyle runner Perfect Truth must surely try to take it on. I think this time she will set it up for another. I'm guessing that Rainbow View will be incovienced by the ground so it will be Phillipina that will improve and swoop through but that won't be the end. The solid surface and trip will suit Oh Goodness Me and she will have a final burst that will win her the Oaks.
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