2008 Grand National

[sean99]

I have decided the way to approach the Grand National is to come up with a portfolio of four or five horses and to back them Ante-post at big odds to win 50 pts.

CLOUDY BAY 2 pts WIN @ 25/1.

“I'd be happy with Cloudy Lane's weight – getting them in the race is the most important thing. It would be nice if Beef Or Salmon were to turn up, as we would have a cracking weight then. Idle Talk's weight gives him more of a chance than last year. He's not certain to go, but if we do decide to run, it seems a sensible rating. He ran a very nice race at Doncaster the other day, so no complaints. Bannister Lane might struggle to get in off that weight and he will go for what was the Eider at Newcastle. He will have other years.” - Donald McCain, trainer of Cloudy Lane (10st 8lb), Idle Talk (10st 6lb) and Bannister Lane (10st) - racingpost.co.uk


CHELSEA HARBOUR 1 pt WIN @ 50/1

“At least he is under 11st, I suppose, and we'll have no trouble in getting a jockey. I'll have to have a chat to the owner and we'll have a good talk about it,but he might never have that weight again. Stamina isn't an issue with him, but the race is a long way off yet.” - Tom Mullins, trainer of Chelsea Harbour (10st 13lb)- racingpost.co.uk


SNOWY MORNING 2.5 pts WIN @ 20/1 - Trainer W. Mullins.


MISTER POINTMENT 3.5 pts WIN @ 14/1 - Trainer P. Nicholls.


A. P McCoy to win the race 3.5 pts WIN @ 14/1

“Butler's Cabin seems in good form and he does jump and stay. He hasn't been to Aintree before, but I think he is big enough to take to the fences and, if he does, he has a live chance. It is his head that could be a bigger problem than his height! Good ground would be important; if it was soft and slow he might give up. He ran well first time out at Leicester but was very disappointing on Saturday. He did collapse after his races at Cheltenham and Fairyhouse and that might have got to him and he might be thinking about it. We have had him checked out and he seems fine and we'll have to give him another run before Aintree. His weight looks okay.
Drombeag will probably struggle to get in, while Bob Hall is a two-and-a-half-mile horse who jumps well and might get the trip I think the race might suit him and he'll take his chance.” - Jonjo O'Neill, trainer of Butler's Cabin (11st), Bob Hall (10st 8lb), Drombeag (10st 3lb), Risk Accessor (10st 1lb) and Innox (9st 13lb)- racingpost.co.uk

Thats my take on the race, although horses carrying over 11 stone have a poor record in the race.

Be lucky!!

[sean99]

Nick Mordin has a system for picking the winner of the National that has been successful for most of the last 20 races, and it suggests the following selections:

A suggested betting plan to win 50 points on the race is:

SLIM PICKINGS 2.5 pts WIN @ 20/1

CORNISH REBEL 0.5 pts WIN @ 100/1

JOACCI 0.75 pts WIN @ 66/1

JOES EDGE 1.5 pts WIN @ 33/1

PARSONS LEGACY 1.5 pts WIN @ 33/1

POINT BARROW 2.5 pts WIN @ 20/1

TOTAL STAKE - 9.25 points

There may be 1 or 2 other qualifiers added in the future.

Mordins selections are totally different from mine, which is a bit of a worry!!

[sean99]

Originally Posted by sean99

I have decided the way to approach the Grand National is to come up with a portfolio of four or five horses and to back them Ante-post at big odds to win 50 pts.

CLOUDY BAY 2 pts WIN @ 25/1.

“I'd be happy with Cloudy Lane's weight – getting them in the race is the most important thing. It would be nice if Beef Or Salmon were to turn up, as we would have a cracking weight then. Idle Talk's weight gives him more of a chance than last year. He's not certain to go, but if we do decide to run, it seems a sensible rating. He ran a very nice race at Doncaster the other day, so no complaints. Bannister Lane might struggle to get in off that weight and he will go for what was the Eider at Newcastle. He will have other years.” - Donald McCain, trainer of Cloudy Lane (10st 8lb), Idle Talk (10st 6lb) and Bannister Lane (10st) - racingpost.co.uk


CHELSEA HARBOUR 1 pt WIN @ 50/1

“At least he is under 11st, I suppose, and we'll have no trouble in getting a jockey. I'll have to have a chat to the owner and we'll have a good talk about it,but he might never have that weight again. Stamina isn't an issue with him, but the race is a long way off yet.” - Tom Mullins, trainer of Chelsea Harbour (10st 13lb)- racingpost.co.uk


SNOWY MORNING 2.5 pts WIN @ 20/1 - Trainer W. Mullins.


MISTER POINTMENT 3.5 pts WIN @ 14/1 - Trainer P. Nicholls.


A. P McCoy to win the race 3.5 pts WIN @ 14/1

“Butler's Cabin seems in good form and he does jump and stay. He hasn't been to Aintree before, but I think he is big enough to take to the fences and, if he does, he has a live chance. It is his head that could be a bigger problem than his height! Good ground would be important; if it was soft and slow he might give up. He ran well first time out at Leicester but was very disappointing on Saturday. He did collapse after his races at Cheltenham and Fairyhouse and that might have got to him and he might be thinking about it. We have had him checked out and he seems fine and we'll have to give him another run before Aintree. His weight looks okay.
Drombeag will probably struggle to get in, while Bob Hall is a two-and-a-half-mile horse who jumps well and might get the trip I think the race might suit him and he'll take his chance.” - Jonjo O'Neill, trainer of Butler's Cabin (11st), Bob Hall (10st 8lb), Drombeag (10st 3lb), Risk Accessor (10st 1lb) and Innox (9st 13lb)- racingpost.co.uk

Thats my take on the race, although horses carrying over 11 stone have a poor record in the race.

Be lucky!!

Irish trained horses have won 6 of the last 9 runnings.

There have been only 4 winning favorites in the last 29 runnings.

Only 5 of the last 29 winners started at odds of < 10/1.

There is also a negative stat on any horse carrying big weights, 24-29 winners carried less than 11 stone.

The last French bred or trained horse to win the National was in 1909, many have tried since and come up short!!

Previously won over 3m+ - 10/10

Won Class 1 or 2 chase - 10/10

Aged 8 to 11 - 9/10

Won or been placed in Class 1 National - 8/10

Yet to win that season - 8/10 (only 1 had won more than once)

Running in their 1st National - 6/10

3 of the 4 who weren't running in their 1st National had failed to complete in the race previously.

Experience of the National fences - 6/10.

Lightly raced, 3-5 runs since August - 9/10

Be wary of horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival, only 2 winners ran at Chelts.

Be lucky!!

[sean99]

The Grand National is less than three weeks away and bet365 are already ensuring that you get the best value at Aintree.

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[christelfordwigan]

COMPLY OR DIE for me

[bobmidd]

I've done these two:-
Comply Or Die e/w at 16/1
Point Barrow e/w at 20/1

[sean99]

Originally Posted by christelfordwigan

COMPLY OR DIE for me

Wednesday 19/03
Die in demand

David Pipe’s Eider Chase winner Comply Or Die was a notable mover in the John Smith’s Grand National market on Wednesday.

The 9yo, who lifted the Newcastle marathon by eight lengths despite carrying a big weight, is now into 12/1 for the Aintree showpiece following good support at 16/1 and then again at 14/1.

Blinkers have made a big difference to the David Johnson-owned gelding, who finished second to Cloudy Bay when sporting the blinds for the first time at Haydock in December.

Seven victories in 19 career starts is a decent strike-rate and, if taking to the big ones at Liverpool, could clearly have a major say. - willhillradio.com

[sean99]

Originally Posted by sean99

Originally Posted by christelfordwigan
COMPLY OR DIE for me


Wednesday 19/03
Die in demand

David Pipe’s Eider Chase winner Comply Or Die was a notable mover in the John Smith’s Grand National market on Wednesday.

The 9yo, who lifted the Newcastle marathon by eight lengths despite carrying a big weight, is now into 12/1 for the Aintree showpiece following good support at 16/1 and then again at 14/1.

Blinkers have made a big difference to the David Johnson-owned gelding, who finished second to Cloudy Bay when sporting the blinds for the first time at Haydock in December.

Seven victories in 19 career starts is a decent strike-rate and, if taking to the big ones at Liverpool, could clearly have a major say. - willhillradio.com

Wearing blinkers in a Grand National is a very negative statistic I seem to recall.

[Red Viva]

Good thread Sean, I have backed these

Cloudy Lane

Cheltenham Festival winner in 2007, trained by the people who know how to win the Big one.

Comply Or Die

Winner of the Eider Chase off 11st 12lb, will think he has a feather on his back with 10-09 to carry.


Bewleys Berry

Going well until falling at Bechers last year on the 2nd circuit.

Mckelvey

Picked up a tendon injury on the run to the line in last year's race where he finished second to Silver Birch.

Point Barrow

Former Irish National winner but fell at the first fence last year when co-favourite.

[Kanu]

Any thoughts on Over The Creek gents? Have backed it at 40/1 as i like the fact that it has been top 4 every race this season, appears to suit any type of ground, placed in the welsh national and at cheltenham and looks to be proven to get the trip.

Not sure if the trainer will aim him elsewhere but at the price i've had to have a nibble!