What does it take to move the market?

[mijoda]

Just wondered if anyone on here knows much about how the betting markets actually work. Eg if you had a horse say between 25 and 33/1 what would be the combined bookies liability to push that price down to say 7/2? Would the money needed to be placed accross all the bookies or if just one reduced their odds would all the others follow suit? Would on course money carry more weight than shop money or bets placed on line? Thanks for any info anyone can give.

[multibetter]

I'm no expert but what ive been told is SPs are set by on course betting, they of course will take a hint from EP in shops and bookies agents can lay liabilities to influence the price. You get bigger price swings at evening meetings at places like Kempton because of fewer on course punters theerefor a £500 bet will have a relativley bigger impact on a 33/1 than it would say at Royal ascot.

[yeehaa]

tom segal ang hugh taylor are 2 men that can move markets, just look at the prices hugh gets them on at compared to the sp, the exchanges 2 would prob move them a bit

[sean99]

Just wondered if anyone on here knows much about how the betting markets actually work.

Like all markets they are driven by greed and fear.

Any series of bets on big priced horses will see the price collapse, that is why you should never follow tipsters, because by the time you get on the price will be gone.

If you try to get £100 on a horse at early prices, they will usually offer you £10 at the price, and the rest at SP.

[multibetter]

Originally Posted by yeehaa

tom segal ang hugh taylor are 2 men that can move markets, just look at the prices hugh gets them on at compared to the sp, the exchanges 2 would prob move them a bit

Correct, Pricewise usually shaves a third of the price and Hugh can halve it, the latter has been out of form of late but it still impacts as much. Ive tracked the price change and its entertaining to watch it come in.

[Steve G]

Originally Posted by multibetter

Correct, Pricewise usually shaves a third of the price and Hugh can halve it, the latter has been out of form of late but it still impacts as much. Ive tracked the price change and its entertaining to watch it come in.

When these tipsters are in form they are worth following. I did an exercise some time ago following Hugh Taylor's selections on their next run regardless of whether they had won or lost on the day they were tipped up. It was incredibly profitable. One even came in at 66/1!

Back to the subject, much depends on how much money there is in the market. A selling hurdle at Hexham is unlikely to attract the amount of money that we'll see today at Goodwood. That has a major impact on liquidity in the market. A couple of hundred £££ bet could change the price dramatically in the Hexham example, but would have absolutely no effect on a Goodwood market.

Good luck today. The tightest racing I've seen in a long time!

[multibetter]

Agree steve, anyone in form is worth a second glance. Thats the wayI treat tips, to take a closer look.

Gary Obrien at ATR has been in good form of late, I would use his tips on an evening meeting if theres no flat racing. His today are...

7.00 GALWAY

1pt each-way WORLDLY WISE (11-1 general)
8.05 GALWAY

2pts win, 1pt place FIT THE COVE (15-2 VC Bet)

Hugh's are,,,,,,

3.25 GOODWODD

1pt each-way RIGGINS (14-1 bet365, William Hill, Totesport ew 1/4 123)

1pt each-way LOVELACE (22-1 bet365, Totesport, Sportingbet ew 1/4 123 20-1 general)
4.00 GOODWOOD

2pts win BOLD BIDDER (16-1 Skybet, 14-1 general)
4.35 GOODWOOD

2pts win BENANDONNER (18-1 888sport, Blue Square, Skybet, Sportingbet, 16-1 general)

Theres a couple of lucky 31's there for anyone feeling brave.

[mijoda]

Thanks for all the info guys.