Posts Tagged ‘mastercraftsman’

The St James’s Palace Stakes is the biggest race of day one on the Royal Ascot card. It’s a Group 1 event run over a trip of a mile and is open to 3 year olds. The race has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien in recent years – he has trained the winner of 5 of the last 9 renewals.

O’Brien has a strong contender once again with the odds on favourite Mastercraftsman. The trends below should help us decide if he’s backable price at around the 4/5 mark.

St James’s Palace Stakes Trends
6 of the last 10 favourites have won.

7 of the last 10 winners had won a Group 1 or Group 2 as a juvenile.

9 of the last 15 winners had previously won a Group 1.

Aidan O’Brien has won 5 of the last 9 renewals.

6 of the last 10 winners had won a European 2000 Guineas.

12 of the last 13 British and Irish trained winners had run in a 2000 Guineas.

St James’s Palace Stakes Conclusion
The trends certainly support Mastercraftsman’s case. He finished a very respectable 6th behind Sea The Stars in the English 2000 Guineas and then went on to destroy the field in the Irish equivalent. The only minor negative I can see is the fact he seems to thrive on heavy ground but then he has also won in decent fashion on good to firm as a 2yo.

The one I think is the value bet in the race is Sir Michael Stoute’s Evasive. There was very little between him and Mastercraftsman in the 2000 Guineas and at a best priced 6/1, makes more appeal to me than the 5/4 about the O’Brien runner. That was his first attempt at a mile, he’s fresher than most of these and there is very likely improvement to come.

Delegator could be the fly in the ointment. On his 1 and a half length 2nd to See The Stars at Newmarket, he’d be the one to beat. The problem is you need to forgive his run in the Irish 2000 Guineas. It was on heavy ground which probably wasn’t to his liking but it really was a shocking effort. I’d probably want a bit bigger than 4/1 about the chance he’ll come back to form in a race of this standard.

Suggested Bet
1pt win Evasive @ 6/1 with BlueSq

Paddy Power – Bet £10 Get £20 Free
Open a new account via a link on this site and place a £10 bet. Paddy Power will give you a free £20 bet!

Click here to get your £20 free bet

Aidan O’Brien is the king of the 2000 Guineas with four victories in the last ten years. Rock Of Gibraltar in 2002, Footstepsinthesand in 2005, George Washington in 2006 and last year’s winner Henrythenavigator have made O’Brien the man to fear in the Newmarket showpiece.

The Irish trainer’s horses are often allowed to go off at decent odds as Henrythenavigator winning at 11/1 in 2008 demonstrates. His only winner at cramped odds was 2006 incumbent George Washington at 6/4.

This year O’Brien goes to war with 5 runners, although the participation of Rip Van Winkle has been open to some debate in the last week or so. This horse looked very impressive when winning the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown but disappointed badly in the Dewhurst and although that wouldn’t put me off on it’s own, I feel he’s being priced up very short on reputation whereas other have solid form in the book.

Of all Aidan’s entries, the one I like most is Mastercraftsman. His best performance for me came in the Group 1 Independent Waterford Wedgwood Phoenix Stakes which was on good to firm ground, the likely going for Saturday’s big race. He was a little disappointing on his last start when 4th behind Naaqoos at Longchamp at the end of last season but I’m always prepared to forgive horses from the O’Brien stable a bad run at the end of a campaign.

A number of his 2 year olds have followed this pattern but Aidan O’Brien has a knack of getting them back to 100% for the start of their 3 year old campaign and I expect Mastercraftsman to be another example of this.

It’s always nice to see one of the smaller stables get a result in the 2000 Guineas and I’d imagine something will pop up in the places at a huge price as is often the case here but I’d expect O’Brien to do it again.