Archive for the ‘Systems and Strategy’ Category

The win fund for last weeks Scoop 6 stood at a massive £2,037,527 and although no favourite won any of the 6 races, there was no huge shock either. With the number of big syndicates that normally get involved when the pool reaches anything like that size, I’m very surprised none of them managed to land the big prize.

The biggest priced winner of the day was Sunnyhillboy at 14/1 in the finale. This horse had won 2 of his 4 starts to date so wasn’t really that hard to find. Obviously it’s easy in hindsight but I thought it would be good to look at each winner from last week and see if it can give us the right mindset for picking all 6 this coming week!

Race 1 – Joe Lively won 4/1
I personally didn’t fancy Joe Lively an awful lot and his form figures prior to the race read 32465. Prior to this though he’d had managed 111211. A few of the races he contested were small uncompetitive fields but he’s still performed consistently well the early part of last season and he had won twice previously at Cheltenham.

Verdict – Not hard to find, consistent and had course form.

Race 2 – Imperial Commander won 13/2
This horse was well backed and well fancied by the stable. What put me off slightly was the fact he’d only had 4 starts over fences although 3 of them were wins over course and distance. Imperial Commander’s form figures read 1411 over fences. I managed to find the 2nd and 3rd but I missed the winner looking for a bigger priced selection. If I’m honest this was foolish considering the winner of the Paddy Power normally comes from the first 4 in the betting.

Verdict – Again fairly easy to select, 3 time course and distance winner, well weighted, stable in form.

Race 3 – Ice Tea won 8/1
I hated the look of this and it certainly wouldn’t have been a race I would have had a bet in. Ice Tea had been struggling in handicap chases and although he’d dropped down the weights slightly he was still reasonably hard to find.His form figues going into the race were 4 5 P/U P/U F. The only couple of positives were his only run at Wetherby previously was a good one albeit over hurdles, and the fact Brian Harding was taking over in the plate. He gave Ice Tea a superb ride here.

Verdict – Probably 4th or 5th choice for me, inconsistent in recent times but did have a good effort at the track from one attempt.

Race 4 – Fair Along won 10/1
I gave Fair Along a massive chance. He ended up being my 2nd choice behind Copsale Lad but it was a toss up between the two. The 10/1 SP was huge, I had him in at about 5/1. I thought the step up in trip was what this horse was crying out for and he had a lot of decent runs behind him at Cheltenham.

Verdict – The easiest winner to select from the 4 races so far for me, good course form, decent apprentice on board claiming 7lbs and suited by the step up in trip.

Race 5 – European Dream won 11/2
Another race I wouldn’t have been betting in under normal circumstances. I went with the favourite Knockavilla who fell at the 4th hurdle. European Dream had been contesting a lot better races than this but I just felt he might find one or two of these improve past him, that wasn’t the case. He had won at Wetherby previously and his stable were coming into form.

Verdict – Wasn’t for me personally but was near the head of the betting and a previous course winner.

Race 6 – Sunnyhillboy won 14/1
This Novices Handicap Hurdle was a tough race to solve with 19 runners going to post. My main selection Hernando Royal was very well backed and finished 4th at 5/1. The fancied horses from the bigger stables were largely disappointing and David Pipe’s Qanta De Thaix was subject of some very strange betting patterns. Sunnyhillboy’s connections had won this race the previous year but Jonjo O´Neill hasn’t been in exactly sparkling form. The horse did win a reasonable 15 runner event at Exeter last time and was open to plenty of improvement but so were a number of others in the field.

Verdict – You could have found the winner but it was a wide open race and there were others that made more appeal on paper. Probably the toughest of the 6 winners to select.

Conclusion
The main thing that jumps out at me is the fact all the winners bar the last had previous solid course form. As a general rule, Jumps racing is less competitive than the flat so unlike when the big flat handicaps make up part of the Scoop 6 during the summer, we are less likely to see 33/1 and 50/1 shots wipe out the majority of tickets.

This weeks Scoop 6 will probably be made up of racing from Haydock and Huntingdon so it might pay to look for horses with previous course form, consistent jumpers and nothing at ridiculous prices unlike me last week!

Totesport are offering 5% cashback on the Scoop 6 during November. They also give new clients a £25 free bet. Take advantage of these offers here.

Don’t pick all the favourites – Not every favourite is going to win or even get placed for that matter. If by some miracle they do all win, the Scoop 6 dividend will be next to nothing because you will be sharing it with so many others.

Consider a perm – A Scoop 6 perm can really increase your chances of landing the jackpot. If you can’t decide between two horses in a particular race, by doing a perm you can include them both. This can get expensive if you start picking two or more selections in each race, but if it’s just one or two races that are giving you a headache this is as good as a Nurofen!

Go against the crowd – The Scoop 6 includes the races that are live on TV, usually the biggest and most competitive race of the day. Pricewise in the Racing Post normally selects his best bet of the day from these races as do most of the tipsters in the press. These selections are followed by the masses so if you go against them, you increase your chances of a big win.

Look for trainers in form – You don’t often get a Scoop 6 being won without a few big priced winners but how do you find them? One way is to look for trainers that are in form. Their horses can perform above market expectations.

Form a syndicate – As we mentioned earlier, a Scoop 6 perm can really increase your chances of a win but the cost does mount up with the £2 minimum stake. If you select 2 runners in each of the 6 races it costs £128. Why not get together with some friends and split the cost between you? It’s more fun than the lottery and you always have a chance of the place dividend which can also pay handsomely.

Claim some cashback – Certain online bookmakers offer 10% cashback on Scoop 6 bets especially on the weeks there is a big pot to play for. Recently, Skybet have been running this offer on a weekly basis but BlueSq and Bet365 also run this promotion from time to time. If you are placing a perm every week this can soon add up to a lot of money and also gives you one free Scoop 6 week in ten.

Place your bet with Skybet here – Bet £5 get £20 of free bets AND get 10% back on your Scoop 6 bets.

Go for a last leg banker – If you’re still on course for a win or place payout come the 6th leg of your Scoop 6 bet, you can lay off your selection on the betting exchange Betfair. If you have just one selection in the last leg and the price isn’t too big, it makes the process a lot easier.

Throw logic out the window – Maybe you’re not a racing expert and you just want a bit of fun on a Saturday afternoon. If this is the case then go for whatever takes your fancy – colours, names or even numbers. For just £2 and with no horse racing knowledge, you could be thousands of £’s richer. The most famous Scoop 6 winner, Agnes Haddock, picked her Bonus horse because it was number 13 and she was born on the 13th. She scooped a total of £688,620 from her £2 Scoop 6 bet.

Beware non runners – Something important you need to keep in mind with the Scoop 6 is that if your selection is a non runner, it’s automatically replaced with the favourite. This can be very annoying if it’s a favourite you have chosen to oppose and it ends up finishing nearer last than first. Make sure you check the non runners before placing your bet.

Look for consistent placers – Another approach with the Scoop 6 is to attack it like a Placepot. Find six horses that get placed in your six races and you’ll receive the place dividend. This can vary but often pays between £500 and £1000 and is a much more realistic target than finding six winners.

Scoop 6 Resources
Scoop 6 Guide - Check out our Scoop 6 Guide for more tips and advice on how to play this popular bet.

Scoop 6 Cashback - Get 10% cashback on your Scoop 6 bet from Skybet.

The Grand National may seem like a minefield but by using trends from previous years, it is possible to dramatically narrow down the likely winner from the large number of runners.

Here are the key trends to consider when trying to find the winner of the 2009 Grand National.

1.) Look for a runner carrying 11st 5lbs or less.
2.) Avoid horses aged younger than 8 or older than 12.
3.) Horses that have won of 3 miles+ hold a disinct advantage.
4.) Avoid French bred runners.
5.) Stay away from horses with any type of headgear, be it blinkers, a visor or cheekpieces.

There are a number of other trends to take into account but these will certainly help with your selection process for the 2009 Grand National.

You can visit our Grand National Trends page on the website for more detailed analysis.

The ante post Grand National market is currently headed by Denman at 16/1 with Skybet and last year’s winner Comply Or Die at 20/1 with Paddy Power.

Champion Hurdle
Multiple winners are not uncommon here. Istabraq won three years in a row in 1998, 1999 and 2000 and Hardy Eustace won the race in both 2004 and 2005.

Only one five year old has been victorious since 1985 (Katchit in 2008).

Runners that finished 1st or 2nd previously at the Cheltenham Festival make up 14 of the last 17 winners.

22 of the last 25 winners won last time out.

2009 Cheltenham Festival Trends Day 1

Queen Mother Champion Chase
This is normally one of the smaller fields of the meeting. Favourites and Arkle winners have a strong record.

There is a strong negative for young horses, with the only two five year old winners since 1973.

Five of the last ten Champion Chase winners had previously won at the festival over fences.

2009 Cheltenham Festival Trends Day 2

World Hurdle
The feature race of day three. Look for a horse aged between six and eight. Favourites have a better than average record and hold up horse also tend to do well.

A must for this race is a horse that has finished first, second, third or fourth last time out.

No five year old has never won the race.

An Irish trainer has not won the World Hurdle for 14 years.

2009 Cheltenham Festival Trends Day 3

Cheltenham Gold Cup
Avoid horses younger than seven or older than ten (No winner older then 10 since 1969 and 14 of the last 15 winners have been aged between 7 and 9).

Previous win or place form at the festival is a must (9 from the last 11 winners had been placed at the Cheltenham Festival previously).

Lightly raced horses hold an advantage, look for runners with less than fourteen career runs. Second season chasers and horses that have won over three miles or more are worth noting.

7 of the last 8 winners were rated 166 or bigger.

Only one horse since 1994 has won the Gold Cup after already being beaten in the race.

2009 Cheltenham Festival Trends Day 4

Get the latest betting on the 2009 Cheltenham Festival

Saturday’s Scoop 6 races are all live on Channel 4. They are as follows;

2.20 Kempton
2.35 Haydock
2.50 Kempton
3.10 Haydock
3.25 Kempton
3.40 Haydock

It looks a very tough day with 4 of the races having 16 or more runners. You can make the Scoop 6 a lot easier by using a perm, our suggested play is below.

Leg 1 - Elnawin
Leg 2 - Crimson Fern and Efistorm
Leg 3 - Blue Monday
Leg 4 - Equiano and African Rose
Leg 5 - Willow Dancer
Leg 6 - La Vecchia Scuola

A £2 perm will cost £8. You can place your Scoop 6 bet at Totesport, BlueSq or Bet365.

There is a precautionary inspection of the Haydock card at 7am so watch your bets.

Best of luck!