Archive for the ‘Systems and Strategy’ Category

The Scoop 6 rolled over for the 2nd week in succession last Saturday which means the win fund starts the day off at £149,295. The bonus fund currently stands at £63,984.

The races for this Saturday are;

2.10 Haydock
2.25 Newmarket
2.40 Haydock
3.15 Haydock
3.35 Newmarket
3.45 Redcar

Visit our horse racing forum for tips and advice on this Saturday’s Scoop 6. You can also use our Scoop 6 Guide to help you in your quest for the Scoop 6 jackpot.

BlueSq often give concessions on the Scoop 6 bet and offer new clients a £100 free bet.

Click here to visit Blue Square and claim your Scoop 6 free bet.

The less said about last week’s attempt the better with only one winner and a non runner. There were no winners of last Saturday’s Scoop 6 but 390 people managed to land the place money, each receiving £139.40. The bonus fund was also won so now stands at £40,803.

Here are our thoughts on this week’s Scoop 6 races. It’s a slimmed down version this week which some of you may think is a good thing!

Haydock 1.55 – A huge field go to post for this grade 3 hurdle. Howard Johnson’s Caravel looks interesting now he goes handicapping having won 3 novice hurdles on the bounce. Right at the bottom of the weights, Hot Diamond could go well at a big price.

Lingfield 2.10 – This race looks as though it could be quite straightforward for the Walter Swinburn trained Laudatory. He won well last time and 83 doesn’t seem like a harsh mark to follow up from. At bigger odds, course and distance winner Kaabari makes some appeal.

Ascot 2.15 – It look like a more impossible Scoop 6 than normal with the 3rd leg, the Victoria Cup, having 29 runners. Prescription under Seb Sanders warrants respect but this filly is too short in the market for my liking on what she has achieved thus far. Mr Macattack gets in here on a nice weight and won in very impressive fashion last time albeit in a weak race. Fishforcompliments should go well under his talented apprentice after finishing 2nd to Mr Hardy last time. That horse has franked the form by winning again this week.

Nottingham 2.25 – I’m not a fan of these longer distance handicaps really. Sri Kuantan won last time but has been a bit inconsistent in previous starts and is probably worth taking on again. Silk Hall should go well even under top weight but at a bigger price, Four Miracles can bounce back to form now dropped in grade.

Haydock 3.05 – Outsider of the field Sammy The Snake was quite well supported on his first run for sometime at Kempton recently. Although he finished last of 5, he did show that he still retains a decent level of ability and is a big price for me at 20/1. Top weight Appalachian Trail won this race last year and although he has disappointed since, he’s worth chancing off this mark.

Lingfield 3.45 – A decent fillies stakes to finish this weeks Scoop 6 with £65,000 in prize money on offer. I’m very keen on the chances of the William Haggas runner Damaniyat Girl. She put up a great performance chasing home Fantasia at Newmarket last time and the Haggas stable had a decent winner at Chester on Friday.

Blue Square usually offer 10% cashback on the Scoop 6 and also give new clients a £100 free bet.

Click here to visit Blue Square and claim your £100 free bet

You can get Scoop 6 tips, analysis and strategy from our horse racing forum as well as using our Scoop 6 Guide.

We managed to find a couple of winners last week with Noble Alan winning at 17/2 and Lahaleeb at 6/1. There were no winners of the Scoop 6 this past Saturday which means the win fund now stands at £679,514 and the bonus fund is now £291,220. Last week’s place dividend paid a huge £2,965.80.

Here are our thoughts on this week’s Scoop 6 races.

Sandown 2.05 – An interesting handicap hurdle to kick off proceedings. Nicky Henderson and David Pipe both need to be respected in this race and I think the Pipe runner Seven Is My Number holds strong claims. He’s been disappointing since finishing 2nd here behind the Henderson trained Dave’s Dream. The horse was given far too much to do on that occasion and on reflection, ran a superb race to finish 2nd. Back at Sandown, I think he’ll run a big race. At the top of the handicap, French Opera would also have strong claims with his pilot claiming the 5lb. His performance back over hurdles at Aintree last time was very good and I can see this horse staying on well up the tough Sandown run in.

Ripon 2.20 – I’m not a fan of three year old handicaps and this race is no different. Coleorton Choice is a course and distance winner, has a run under his belt this season and seems to act on any going. Excellent Show is probably the most interesting horse in the field. They felt he was good enough to contest the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Ascot last season and although the he disappointed he did have a poor draw and could turn out to be a bit better than these rivals.

Sandown 2.35 – As impressed as I have been by Kalahari King this season, I think he’ll find it tough against Twist Magic at the track he loves. At the tissue prices of 5/4 Kalahari King and 3/1 Twist Magic, I’d be seriously considering a single bet on the Nicholls runner. He looked like he was going to make a race of it against Master Minded in the Tingle Creek here in December before falling 2 out. Being prone to the odd error is a worry but I’d still go with Twist Magic to notch up his 2nd victory at Sandown.

Ripon 2.55 – Another poor race that has the makings of a Scoop 6 buster. Top weight Mr Wolf looks the most likely winner but I’ll be very surprised if there isn’t one lurking at the bottom of the handicap that is well in. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world to see Fantasy Believer pop up at a big price but I’m not sure his handicap mark is going down as quickly as his ability. I will go with consistent gelding Strathmore who should go well with only 8-6 on his back. He’s another who’s vunlnerable to a better handicapped horse but at least he’s likely to give us a run for our money something that is hard to be confident about most of these doing.

Sandown 3.10 – The Bet365 Gold Cup sees a quality field go to post but the worry I would have with a number of these runners is the amount of racing they have seen this season. The two that interest me most here are Carl Llewellyn’s Hennessy and the Phillip Hobbs trained Lacdoudal. McCoy is a very interesting booking on Llewellyn’s runner and he won the only time he rode the horse previously. Lacdoudal won this race in 2006 off a 12lbs higher mark and has to be respected.

Ripon 3.30 – A decent handicap to finish where likely favourite Wells Lyrical should prove hard to be. He looked to be going very much the right way last season and the step up in trip can offset his 6lb rise in the weights. Dunaskin is a course winner and might have the fitness edge over some of these rivals after his pipe opener 17 days ago. He is a solid alternative.

Blue Square usually offer 10% cashback on the Scoop 6 and also give new clients a £100 free bet.

Click here to visit Blue Square and claim your £100 free bet

You can get Scoop 6 tips, analysis and strategy from our horse racing forum as well as using our Scoop 6 Guide.

With the credit crunch showing no signs of disappearing anytime soon, I thought I would take a page from the book of money saving expert Martin Lewis and come up with ten ways you can save money when betting on horse racing.

1. Create a betting bank
Set yourself a limit each month and stick to it. All the little £5 and £10 bets here and there soon add up. If you set yourself a limit of £100 and once it’s gone you can’t have another bet until the following month, you’ll be amazed how much more selective you are and how many more winners you’ll find.

2. Be pricewise
You can make your money go further by shopping around for prices. Using sites such as Valuechecker you can see which bookmaker is offering the best price about your selection. Why would you back a horse at 3/1 that is available at 5/1? It makes no sense to me but there are a number of people that consistently do so for the convenience of using one Bookmaker.

3. Get cash back
If you play the Scoop 6 on a Saturday, both Blue Square and Skybet give 10% cash back on the bet. It might only be 20p on £2 but it’s better in your pocket than the bookmakers. If you are someone that likes to perm their Scoop 6 and you’re spending serious money on the bet, it’s a must.

4. Win for free
Times are tough and for some people, betting might be the first luxury to go. For anyone in this position and even for those who aren’t, the OLBG Tipster Competition could be the answer. There are some seriously good prizes on offer each month and you can bet on literally anything you like. Best of all it’s totally free to enter. There is more of the same on offer here at EBA with our Through The Card and Naps competitions. That’s another £150 up for grabs every month and again, completely free to enter.

5. Free Bets
99% of bookmakers give new clients a free bet of some sort. These free bet offers have really increased over the last few years and some bookmakers offer in excess of £200. Some of the promotions are exclusive to EBA so check them out and get some free betting cash.

6. Profitable tips
I mentioned the OLBG tipster competition earlier. This is far and away the biggest tipster comp around and attracts a number of very successful punters. The good news is all the results from the comp are freely available to anyone registered on the site. Registration is free and quick and you don’t get hit with a load of spam either. Once registered, you can see detailed records of which punters are consistently profitable and use their tips to your advantage.

7. Best odds guaranteed
Many bookmakers are now offering best odds guaranteed. What this means is, if you take the bookmaker’s early price and the returned starting price is bigger, they will pay out at the bigger odds. Bet365, Stan James and Paddy Power are among those running this promotion and other do for certain races and big meetings. You can couple this with tip number 2 and really hammer those bookmakers.

8. Multiples aren’t for mugs
Multiple bets are often considered mugs bets. Take a Luck 15 for example, you have one loser and more than half the bets you paid for are wiped out. Well, this is true but what is also worth remembering is the fact Betfred pay treble the odds if you only get one winner in a Lucky 15. This is one of the best concessions out there as far as I’m concerned and makes the Lucky 15 a very shrewd option.

9. Bet fair
I’m sure there aren’t many of you who haven’t heard of Betfair but I’m still surprised by the number of casual punters that don’t have an account with the betting exchange. I won’t start talking about the ins and outs of laying here but if you fancy an outsider in a horse race, Betfair is the place to go. It’s hard to beat the price of favourites these days by the time you pay commission but if you want to back a horse to win at big odds, you can sometimes get more than double the traditional bookmaker odds.

10. Be systematic
If you find it hard to be disciplined where your horse racing betting is concerned, try sticking to a system. There are a number of horse racing systems out there and following one or two for a time will teach you how to budget and be disciplined where your betting is concerned. Visit our horse racing forum and start following some profitable horse racing systems.

Tomorrow’s Scoop 6 covers action from Kempton, Haydock and Carlisle.

The Scoop 6 wasn’t won last Saturday and the win fund currently stands at £373,225 with the bonus fund at £159,953.

The races that make up this weekend’s Scoop 6 are;

2.05 Kempton - Find The Best Odds At Oddschecker.com Handicap
2.25 Haydock - Sports 360 Leaders In Sports Advertising ‘fixed Brush’ Handicap Hurdle
2.55 Haydock - Blue Square ‘fxed Brush’ Novices’ Hurdle Final Bonus Race
3.10 Kempton - Oddschecker.com Easter Stakes
3.25 Carlisle - Totescoop6 Handicap Chase
3.45 Kempton - Oddschecker.com Casino And Poker Room Handicap

Blue Square usually offer 10% cashback on the Scoop 6 and also give new clients a £100 free bet.

Click here to visit Blue Square and claim your £100 free bet.

You can get Scoop 6 tips, analysis and strategy from this week’s discussion thread on our horse racing forum as well as using our Scoop 6 Guide.

Tomorrow’s Scoop 6 covers action from Newcastle, Lingfield and Aintree.

The Scoop 6 wasn’t won last Saturday and the win fund currently stands at £290,885 with the bonus fund at £124,665.

The races that make up this weekend’s Scoop 6 are;

2.05 Newcastle - Bet365 Handicap
2.10 Lingfield - Freebets.co.uk Grand National Free Bets Handicap
2.45 Lingfield - Freebets.co.uk Grand National Betting Spring Handicap
3.05 Newcastle - Best Odds Guaranteed Every Race At Bet365.com Handicap
3.25 Aintree - John Smith’s Handicap Chase
4.15 Aintree - John Smith’s Grand National Chase

Blue Square usually offer 10% cashback on the Scoop 6 and also give new clients a £100 free bet.

Click here to visit Blue Square and claim your £100 free bet

You can get Scoop 6 tips, analysis and strategy from our horse racing forum as well as using our Scoop 6 Guide.

There are a number of different approaches punters take when trying to find the winners at the Cheltenham Festival. Whether it be trends, speed figures, handicap marks or something more scientific like names and colours, you can attack the Festival from many weird and wonderful angles.

VC Bet are offering new clients a £50 free bet on the Cheltenham Festival. Register now!

Something that I like to do that is simple but often effective is look at the trainers doing well in the weeks leading up to Cheltenham. You’ll find that many trainer’s horses will have been performing at a very average level throughout the national hunt season but will suddenly begin to sparkle at the end of February.

Here are the trainers that are in form at the right time and should prove profitable to follow during the 2009 Cheltenham Festival.

Tom George – Tom George is certainly the hottest jumps trainer at the moment, having saddled 7 winners from his last 12 runners giving a £27.75 level stake profit. He has three horses entered at the Festival, Tartak who is entered in both the Arkle and the Grand Annual, Othermix in the Champion Hurdle and Tank Top in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup.

100/1 chance Othermix looks to be a bit out of it’s depth and it would be a major shock to see that runner even manage a place. Tartak is trading around the 14/1 mark for both his entered events and Tank Top is a 40/1 shot. Both horses look to have decent each way chances.

Jonjo O’Neill – Jonjo nearly always pulls something out the bag at Cheltenham and his form coming in couldn’t be much better with 7 winners from 29 runners in the last 14 days including 5 winners from his last 9 runners.

O’Neill has too many entries to mention here but the area where he normally excels at Cheltenham is in non handicap chases. He has a particularly good record in the National Hunt Chase for amateur riders, having won 4 of the last 10 renewals. This year he has 3 in the race, Wichita Lineman, Can’t Buy Time and Carnival Town. Although Carnival Town is a 66/1 shot, don’t let that put you off. A number of Jonjo’s winners in this race have been unfancied in the market.

Alan King – Alan King’s yard seem to get better year on year at Cheltenham and have a 12% strike rate over the last ten seasons. King’s yard are another coming into form at the right time with 13 winners from 14 runners in the last 14 days for a 26.5% strike rate.

Following the King yard at Cheltenham can be made a lot more profitable if you avoid their runners in handicaps where they have only managed 1 winner from 40 runners. In all other races, Alan King has managed to produce 9 winners from 43 runners, a 21% strike rate and a 29.5pt level stake profit. His runners in the Triumph hurdle are worth strong consideration.

Other trainers worth paying close attention to are Sue Smith, Nicky Henderson and Philip Hobbs.

I’ve seen this point brought up elsewhere in the past, I’m not tying to claim the rights to this strategy, but I can’t stress it’s importance enough..

When having a bet on the horses, always go back after the race and work out why the winning horse has been victorious.

Working out why horses win races is invaluable. You often understand why your selection was beaten and you can pinpoint horses that are likely to win again. It helps you with your future selection process no end.

Obviously, if it’s your runner that’s won, you don’t need to worry as much but it’s still worth doing a race review to see if it has won in the manner you expected and also to see if other horses in the race have under or over performed.

Most punters only watch their own horse during a race. It’s the natural thing to do, it’s the one your money is on and hopefully the horse you’re going to see cross the winning post first. The problem is, you’re missing other runners that are likely to win later in the season.

In horse racing, you do get some inexplicable results, but the majority of the time the horse that has won is entitled to do so.

The win fund for last weeks Scoop 6 stood at a massive £2,037,527 and although no favourite won any of the 6 races, there was no huge shock either. With the number of big syndicates that normally get involved when the pool reaches anything like that size, I’m very surprised none of them managed to land the big prize.

The biggest priced winner of the day was Sunnyhillboy at 14/1 in the finale. This horse had won 2 of his 4 starts to date so wasn’t really that hard to find. Obviously it’s easy in hindsight but I thought it would be good to look at each winner from last week and see if it can give us the right mindset for picking all 6 this coming week!

Race 1 – Joe Lively won 4/1
I personally didn’t fancy Joe Lively an awful lot and his form figures prior to the race read 32465. Prior to this though he’d had managed 111211. A few of the races he contested were small uncompetitive fields but he’s still performed consistently well the early part of last season and he had won twice previously at Cheltenham.

Verdict – Not hard to find, consistent and had course form.

 

Race 2 – Imperial Commander won 13/2
This horse was well backed and well fancied by the stable. What put me off slightly was the fact he’d only had 4 starts over fences although 3 of them were wins over course and distance. Imperial Commander’s form figures read 1411 over fences. I managed to find the 2nd and 3rd but I missed the winner looking for a bigger priced selection. If I’m honest this was foolish considering the winner of the Paddy Power normally comes from the first 4 in the betting.

Verdict – Again fairly easy to select, 3 time course and distance winner, well weighted, stable in form.

 

Race 3 – Ice Tea won 8/1
I hated the look of this and it certainly wouldn’t have been a race I would have had a bet in. Ice Tea had been struggling in handicap chases and although he’d dropped down the weights slightly he was still reasonably hard to find.His form figues going into the race were 4 5 P/U P/U F. The only couple of positives were his only run at Wetherby previously was a good one albeit over hurdles, and the fact Brian Harding was taking over in the plate. He gave Ice Tea a superb ride here.

Verdict – Probably 4th or 5th choice for me, inconsistent in recent times but did have a good effort at the track from one attempt.

 

Race 4 – Fair Along won 10/1
I gave Fair Along a massive chance. He ended up being my 2nd choice behind Copsale Lad but it was a toss up between the two. The 10/1 SP was huge, I had him in at about 5/1. I thought the step up in trip was what this horse was crying out for and he had a lot of decent runs behind him at Cheltenham.

Verdict – The easiest winner to select from the 4 races so far for me, good course form, decent apprentice on board claiming 7lbs and suited by the step up in trip.

 

Race 5 – European Dream won 11/2
Another race I wouldn’t have been betting in under normal circumstances. I went with the favourite Knockavilla who fell at the 4th hurdle. European Dream had been contesting a lot better races than this but I just felt he might find one or two of these improve past him, that wasn’t the case. He had won at Wetherby previously and his stable were coming into form.

Verdict – Wasn’t for me personally but was near the head of the betting and a previous course winner.

 

Race 6 – Sunnyhillboy won 14/1
This Novices Handicap Hurdle was a tough race to solve with 19 runners going to post. My main selection Hernando Royal was very well backed and finished 4th at 5/1. The fancied horses from the bigger stables were largely disappointing and David Pipe’s Qanta De Thaix was subject of some very strange betting patterns. Sunnyhillboy’s connections had won this race the previous year but Jonjo O´Neill hasn’t been in exactly sparkling form. The horse did win a reasonable 15 runner event at Exeter last time and was open to plenty of improvement but so were a number of others in the field.

Verdict – You could have found the winner but it was a wide open race and there were others that made more appeal on paper. Probably the toughest of the 6 winners to select.

 

Conclusion
The main thing that jumps out at me is the fact all the winners bar the last had previous solid course form. As a general rule, Jumps racing is less competitive than the flat so unlike when the big flat handicaps make up part of the Scoop 6 during the summer, we are less likely to see 33/1 and 50/1 shots wipe out the majority of tickets.

This weeks Scoop 6 will probably be made up of racing from Haydock and Huntingdon so it might pay to look for horses with previous course form, consistent jumpers and nothing at ridiculous prices unlike me last week!

Totesport are offering 5% cashback on the Scoop 6 during November. They also give new clients a £25 free bet. Take advantage of these offers here.

Don’t pick all the favourites – Not every favourite is going to win or even get placed for that matter. If by some miracle they do all win, the Scoop 6 dividend will be next to nothing because you will be sharing it with so many others.

Consider a perm – A Scoop 6 perm can really increase your chances of landing the jackpot. If you can’t decide between two horses in a particular race, by doing a perm you can include them both. This can get expensive if you start picking two or more selections in each race, but if it’s just one or two races that are giving you a headache this is as good as a Nurofen!

Go against the crowd – The Scoop 6 includes the races that are live on TV, usually the biggest and most competitive race of the day. Pricewise in the Racing Post normally selects his best bet of the day from these races as do most of the tipsters in the press. These selections are followed by the masses so if you go against them, you increase your chances of a big win.

Look for trainers in form – You don’t often get a Scoop 6 being won without a few big priced winners but how do you find them? One way is to look for trainers that are in form. Their horses can perform above market expectations.

Form a syndicate – As we mentioned earlier, a Scoop 6 perm can really increase your chances of a win but the cost does mount up with the £2 minimum stake. If you select 2 runners in each of the 6 races it costs £128. Why not get together with some friends and split the cost between you? It’s more fun than the lottery and you always have a chance of the place dividend which can also pay handsomely.

Claim some cashback – Certain online bookmakers offer 10% cashback on Scoop 6 bets especially on the weeks there is a big pot to play for. Recently, Skybet have been running this offer on a weekly basis but BlueSq and Bet365 also run this promotion from time to time. If you are placing a perm every week this can soon add up to a lot of money and also gives you one free Scoop 6 week in ten.

Place your bet with Skybet here – Bet £5 get £20 of free bets AND get 10% back on your Scoop 6 bets.

Go for a last leg banker – If you’re still on course for a win or place payout come the 6th leg of your Scoop 6 bet, you can lay off your selection on the betting exchange Betfair. If you have just one selection in the last leg and the price isn’t too big, it makes the process a lot easier.

Throw logic out the window – Maybe you’re not a racing expert and you just want a bit of fun on a Saturday afternoon. If this is the case then go for whatever takes your fancy – colours, names or even numbers. For just £2 and with no horse racing knowledge, you could be thousands of £’s richer. The most famous Scoop 6 winner, Agnes Haddock, picked her Bonus horse because it was number 13 and she was born on the 13th. She scooped a total of £688,620 from her £2 Scoop 6 bet.

Beware non runners – Something important you need to keep in mind with the Scoop 6 is that if your selection is a non runner, it’s automatically replaced with the favourite. This can be very annoying if it’s a favourite you have chosen to oppose and it ends up finishing nearer last than first. Make sure you check the non runners before placing your bet.

Look for consistent placers – Another approach with the Scoop 6 is to attack it like a Placepot. Find six horses that get placed in your six races and you’ll receive the place dividend. This can vary but often pays between £500 and £1000 and is a much more realistic target than finding six winners.

 

Scoop 6 Resources
Scoop 6 Guide - Check out our Scoop 6 Guide for more tips and advice on how to play this popular bet.

Scoop 6 Cashback - Get 10% cashback on your Scoop 6 bet from Skybet.