Archive for the ‘Horse Racing Previews’ Category

Reason One - The pace

Khyber Kim will be suited by the way the Champion Hurdle is run. A very strong pace is assured in the Champion Hurdle which will suit Khyber Kim down to the ground. He will come bursting through late and mug the Irish trained horses on the line in true dramatic Cheltenham fashion.

Reason Two - Stable Knowledge

Although it’s taken a bit of time, the Twiston Davies yard have managed to unlock the secret to getting the best from Khyber Kim, something Nicky Henderson was unable to do. He needs to be fresh and produced as late as possible during his races. He certainly comes into the race fresh having been off the track since 12th December and Paddy Brennan knows exactly how Khyber Kim needs to be ridden.

Reason Three - Nigel Twiston Davies

Nigel Twiston Davies is yet to win one of the feature championship races at the Cheltenham Festival, it’s about time that changed. He had two winners at last year’s Festival which is his best return since 1993 and I fancy him to improve on that in 2010.

Reason Four - Paddy Brennan

Paddy Brennan loves the horse and looked elated after victory in the Boylesports.com International. ‘He is the most extraordinary two-miler I have ever ridden. He has so much speed.’ Brennan is one of the best jockeys in NH racing and will be desperate to make the most of his chance.

Reason Five - Proven at Cheltenham

Khyber Kim has already won twice at Cheltenham this season and last time had Celestial Halo, Medermit and Punjabi all behind him. That was the second time he has beaten Medermit this season. His form is rock solid.

There you have it, the five reasons Khyber Kim will win the 2010 Champion Hurdle. A slightly less scientific 6th is the fact it would be a great story for Nicky Henderson with his strong hand to be beaten by a horse he couldn’t handle!

Click here to back Khyber Kim for the 2010 Champion Hurdle with PartyBets and get a £25 free bet

There are a few horses running at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival that should only have to turn up to win going on their prices in the Ante Post markets. Let’s have a closer look at these so called bankers and see if they really are the certainties that some punters believe.

Dunguib in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Anyone remember Cousin Vinny last year? While he wasn’t quite as short in the market as Dunguib is, on the day of the race he was punted like defeat was out of the question. His form going into the race was not too dissimilar to Dunguib’s this season, but he could only manage a rather disappointing 5th place finish.

Visually, Dunguib has looked very impressive. His unbeaten run now goes back eight races and bookmakers have reacted by making him a 4/5 chance for the 2010 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. While his obvious chance of victory is there for all to see, his short price at this stage makes little appeal as a betting proposition.

All Dunguib’s wins over hurdles thus far have been on heavy ground. Although he handled the Cheltenham course on good to soft ground when winning the 2009 Champion Bumper, we have no evidence he is capable of the same when those obstacles come into play.

There are so many unexposed horses in the field that could be anything, the odds on chance Dunguib isn’t for me.

Verdict – No Banker

Master Minded in the Queen Mother Champion Chase

Bar an uncharacteristic last fence hiccup, Master Minded looked back to his best when winning the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Saturday. He’s won the last two renewals of the Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase and I can’t see that anything other than a fall is going to stop him making it a hat trick of victories in the race.

The opposition he faces at Cheltenham are generally exposed horses who just aren’t good enough to beat a Master Minded at his best. Even slightly less than his best could be good enough to win.

Verdict – Banker

Big Bucks in the World Hurdle

Paul Nicholls has always held Big Bucks in high regard and was very disappointed he didn’t live up to his high expectations over fences. However, since he has switched to hurdling, he has been a revelation. He’s unbeaten in six hurdle races since he made the switch in January of last year and that includes victory in last year’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle.

The 2010 renewal of the World Hurdle does have a few interesting contenders with the likes of Tidal Bay sticking to hurdles after his win in the Betfair Cleeve Hurdle and Alan King’s Karabak looking as though he’s improving and is still unexposed over this trip. The problem they all have is Big Bucks just has so much in hand of them all on official figures. While the market leader’s price makes for some good each way bets elsewhere in the field, it’s hard to see anything other than back to back World Hurdle titles for Big Bucks.

Verdict – Banker

Kauto Star in the Gold Cup

Following Denman’s disappointing effort in the Aon Chase at Newbury, Kauto Star’s position at the head of the betting for the 2010 Gold Cup has becoming even stronger and he’s now generally a 4/6 chance to make it three Gold Cup wins from four attempts.

While Kauto’s Cheltenham record is good, he is never 100% happy there. The fact he is such a good horse means he has been able to win two Gold Cups even though the track doesn’t play to his strengths. In his favour this year is a lack of decent opposition. It looks a weaker field than last year with no Exotic Dancer or Neptune Collonges but odds on for a horse that doesn’t enjoy himself at Cheltenham isn’t for me despite his previous Gold Cup wins.

Denman isn’t out of it on the back of one poor run and Cooldine is a better horse than what we have seen so far this season so there are a couple of realistic challengers. As nice as it would be to see Kauto win a third Gold Cup in 2010, I have a strange feeling it isn’t going to happen.

Verdict – No Banker

On what we have seen so far this season, all four horses are entitled to win. The thing is, racing isn’t that straightforward and I honestly can’t see the bookmakers not getting a couple of these good things turned over one way or another. It might not be pretty and there are sure to be some hard luck stories involved but it would not surprise me if two or more of these odds on shots get beaten.

The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase is the oldest race at the Cheltenham Festival. It is named after the father of successful trainer Nicky Henderson. Johnny Henderson was a banker and racehorse owner. He safeguarded the future of the Cheltenham Festival from property developers in the 1960’s when forming the Racecourse Holdings Trust who purchased the venue. The Grand Annual Chase was renamed the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase in 2005.

The 2009 renewal of the Grand Annual was won by the Alan King trained Oh Crick carrying just 10st. 4 of the last 8 winners have carried the same weight to victory and another had just 10st 1lb.

Grand Annual Chase Details

Trip: 2 miles

Fences: 14

Class: Grade 3

First Run: 1913

Next running: Friday 19th March 2010

Grand Annual Chase Trends

All of the last 10 winners carried 10st 11lbs or less.

9 of the last 10 winners were aged 9 years old or younger.

30 of the last 35 renewals were won by horses returned 10/1 or less.

2010 Grand Annual Chase

The Ante Post market for the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase is yet to take shape but we can still look at the best ways to narrow down the field when trying to select the winner.

Where the trainers are concerned, Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last six years and Nicky Henderson has had a 1st, a 2nd, two 3rds and a 4th place finisher since the race was named after his father in 2005. It is certainly worth giving his runners in this event the utmost respect.

Horses at the bottom of the handicap tend to perform well in the Grand Annual with 5 of the last 8 winners having carried 10st 1lb or less (4 carried 10st). It is also a race where you are best concentrating on the first few in the betting. 8 of the last 10 winners have returned at 8/1 or less.

Get a £20 free bet on the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase from Paddy Power

Introduced to the Cheltenham Festival in 2009, the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle is a handicap hurdle event that is only open to conditional jockeys.

The race is named after 15 time Champion Trainer Martin Pipe who trained 34 winners at the Cheltenham Festival during his career.

The inaugural running of the Conditionals Hurdle was won by Nicky Henderson’s Andytown at odds of 25/1 after fighting off 100/1 outsider Midnight Chase.

Conditionals Hurdle Details

Trip: 2 miles 4 ½ furlongs

Hurdles: 9

Class: Class 2

First Run: 2009

Next running: Friday 19th March 2010

Conditionals Hurdle Trends

Having only been run once, there are no trends for the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle at this stage.

2010 Conditionals Hurdle

There isn’t much to work with regards the 2010 renewal of the Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle with no betting available on the race as yet. One thing is for sure, David Pipe will be trying his best to win the race named after his father. In 2009, the Pipe yard saddled seven runners but they could only manage third with the well backed 7/2f Big Eared Fran. The fact they had so many runners last year made it difficult to work out which horse was ‘the one’ but as it turned out, the best effort came from the horse at the head of the market.

There will be more Cheltenham Festival tips available from our horse racing forum on the Conditionals Hurdle in the coming weeks.

Get a £25 no lose bet on the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle from Betfair

The Christie’s Foxhunter Chase is the richest hunter chase in the National Hunt calendar. The race was first run in 1904 and was won by Palmy Boy. The Foxhunter Chase has produced six multiple winners since 1946 but no horse has won the race more than twice.

Caroline Beasley made the Foxhunter Chase a real talking point in 1983 when she became the first female jockey to win a race at Cheltenham Festival, piloting Eliogarty to victory.

Earthmover won the Foxhunter Chase in 1998 as a seven year old before going on to have success in some of the biggest races in jumps racing. He returned to hunter chasing at the end of his career and won the Christie’s Foxhunter Chase again in 2004 at the age of thirteen.

Foxhunter Chase Details

Trip: 3 miles 2 ½ furlongs

Fences: 22

Class: Class 2

First Run: 1904

Next running: Friday 19th March 2010

Foxhunter Chase Trends

17 of the last 19 winners have been aged 10 or younger

All of the last 10 winners had won over three miles or further

6 of the last 9 winners had a returned SP of 14/1 or bigger

2010 Foxhunter Chase

The Christie’s Foxhunter Chase isn’t an especially lively Ante Post market and as such, there isn’t prices available this far in advance of the race. Although we can’t come up with an Ante Post fancy, we can look at ways to help with the selection process.

No stable has dominated the Foxhunter Chase in recent times but Paul Nicholls has saddled two winners in the last decade. There have only been two successful favourites in the last ten years, and three of the last four winners have been at odds of 20/1 or bigger.

While older more exposed horses have won the Foxhunter Chase, the race usually goes to an up and coming less exposed type.

Get a £25 no lose bet on the Christie’s Foxhunter Chase from Betfair

The feature event of the whole meeting, the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup, takes place as the 4th race on the final day of the Festival. The Gold Cup is the biggest National Hunt race of the season in terms of both value and prestige. The race first took place in 1924.

Favourites have a very strong record in the Gold Cup with five having won in the last decade, the biggest priced winner in that same period being 15/2. An outsider hasn’t won the race since See More Business was victorious in 1999 at 16/1.

Horses that win the Cheltenham Gold Cup on more than one occasion are not uncommon. In the last ten years two runners have won the race five times between them. Kauto Star was victorious in 2009 and 2007, and Best Mate won the race in 2002, 2003 and 2004.

Kauto Star became the first horse to regain the Gold Cup crown in 2009 after his reverse by stable mate Denman the previous year. Kauto goes for an unprecedented fourth Gold Cup title in 2010.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Details

Trip: 3 miles 2 ½ furlongs

Fences: 22

Class: Grade 1

First Run: 1924

Next running: Friday 19th March 2010

2010 Gold Cup Betting

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

All of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 and 9.

8 of the last 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.

8 of the last 9 winners were rated 166 or higher.

20 of the last 22 winners were placed in the first 4 on their previous outing.

2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup

It’s the usual suspects in the Ante Post market for the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup with Kauto Star and Denman dominating the betting just as they did in 2008 and just as Kauto has done for the past three years. The booking of Tony McCoy for Denman has made the 2010 clash just as fascinating as their 2008 meeting with opinion split on which of Paul Nicholls runners will take the Gold Cup this year.

On a personal level, I’ll just be watching the battle between Kauto and Denman rather than punting one of them. On all known form, they should be finishing 1st and 2nd but maybe we can find the horse to fill 3rd place and maybe even give the two market leaders a scare.

Although he was beaten receiving a lot of weight from Denman in the Hennessey and was still beaten, What A Friend’s victory in the Lexus Chase in December was impressive. The form of that win is rock solid and I’d recommend taking the 50/1 still available at Stan James at time of writing, he’s only a 20/1 chance generally. What A Friend is still improving and while he’s probably not ever going to be a star in the mould of Kauto or even Denman, he makes a lot more appeal as an each way bet than the majority of this year’s alternative contenders.

Back What A friend each way at 50/1 with Stan James and get a £25 free bet

Get more Cheltenham Festival Tips from our horse racing forum.

One of the newer races at the Cheltenham Festival having been added to the meeting in 2005, the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle is a 3 mile hurdle event for novices aged four years and older. The race is also known as the Spa Novice Hurdle.

Brit Insurance initially sponsored this event but Albert Bartlett took over in 2008, when the race also gained Grade 1 status.

From the five Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdles run so far, Tony McCoy has teamed up with Jonjo O’Neill to win two of them. In 2006 they were successful with Black Jack Ketchum, and in 2007 with Wichita Lineman. Both horses are notable for the fact they were very strong favourites.

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Details

Trip: 3 miles

Hurdles: 12

Class: Grade 1

First Run: 2005

Next running: Friday 19th March 2010

2010 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Betting

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Trends

All five winners had already run at least 3 times over hurdles.

12 of the last 13 winners and placed horses finished 1st or 2nd on their previous outing.

All five winners had previously won over a trip of at least 2m 5f.

3 of the last 5 winners had already won at Cheltenham in the same season.

2010 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Current market leader is the Tom George trained Tell Massini, who is a best priced 11/2 at time of writing, but is as short as 4/1 in some places. I generally try to oppose favourites in the Ante Post market but this is a horse I like a lot. His form is rock solid with three victories in three start starts including two at Cheltenham. He looks tough, game and can handle testing conditions. The only question mark would be if the ground came up on the quick side come race day, but there is nothing to say he couldn’t handle it. 11/2 seems very fair on all known form.

Probably the most intriguing horse in the field is the David Pipe trained Madison Du Berlais. Admittedly he also holds a Gold Cup entry on the same day but the fact he is entered for this as well is very interesting. He has been slightly disappointing over fences so far this season and if he doesn’t show some sparkle in his next likely destination, the Racing Post Chase at Kempton, there is a chance he will go for this race. Although Madison Du Berlais would be a massive trend buster, he would have a great chance against a group of novices if running to anywhere near his chase mark. He’s still available at 20/1 generally.

Visit our horse racing forum for more Cheltenham Festival tips.

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Traditionally run as the final race of the Cheltenham Festival, the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle is now scheduled as the second race one the final day of the meeting. The County Hurdle is named after legendary racehorse trainer Vincent O’Brien. O’Brien saddled 23 winners at the Cheltenham Festival during his distinguished career.

In recent years, the Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh combination have really dominated the County Hurdle, winning 3 of the last 6 renewals, including last year with 20/1 shot American Trilogy.

Although one favourite and two joint favourites have won the race in the last ten years, big priced winners are not uncommon. The last three winner have all been in double figures, 20/1, 50/1 and 12/1.

County Hurdle Details

Trip: 2 miles and 1 furlong

Hurdles: 8

Class: Grade 3

First Run: 1920

Next running: Friday 19th March 2010

County Hurdle Trends

9 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.

9 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times in the current season.

Five year olds have won 7 of the last 11 renewals.

2010 County Hurdle

Yet another race where the Ante Post market doesn’t become available until nearer the start of the meeting, lets look at the credentials of a typical Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle winner.

Not many horses win carrying more than 11st and there has only been one winner in the last decade carrying more than 11st 1lb, that was Spirit Leader in 2003. Anything around the 11st mark or just under from the Paul Nicholls yard needs to come under very close inspection indeed. His three winners in recent years have been carrying 11st, 10st 10lbs and 10st 13lbs. American Trilogy didn’t have much in the book to say he’d win last year but was obviously a very well handicapped horse going on the manner in which he won the race. Look for the stable to try and repeat the feat in the 2010 County Hurdle.

Although a 9 year old did win in 2007, winners from this age group are few and far between. 5 and 6 year olds are generally the horses you want on your side. 5 year olds have actually taken 7 of the last 11 renewals of the County Hurdle.

Get a £100 free bet on the 2010 County Hurdle from VC Bet

The Triumph Hurdle is a race restricted to four year old novice hurdlers. The event was previously sponsored by the Daily Express and the Elite Racing Club but has been known as the JCB Triumph Hurdle since 2002.

Winners of the Triumph Hurdle often go on to compete in the Champion Hurdle in following seasons. Persian War, Kribensis and most recently Katchit have won both events.

Alan King and Phillip Hobbs have trained two Triumph Hurdle winners each in the last six seasons.

JCB Triumph Hurdle Details

Trip: 2 miles and 1 furlong

Hurdles: 8

Class: Grade 1

First Run: 1939 (1968 as part of the Cheltenham Festival)

Next running: Friday 19th March 2010

2010 Triumph Hurdle Betting

JCB Triumph Hurdle Trends

13 of the last 15 winners had been victorious on their previous start.

15 of the last 16 winners had already won at least two races.

9 of the last 10 winners were by a Group 1 winning sire.

2010 JCB Triumph Hurdle

Current market leader for the 2010 renewal of the Triumph Hurdle is the Alan King trained Mille Chief. He was brought down on his first outing when going well but has since picked up two wins in decent novice hurdle events. Mille Chief is certainly a strong contender but whether 5/1 is value at this stage is open to debate.

Nicky Henderson has a number of entries for the race. Leading those currently is 10/1 2nd favourite According who is due to make his hurdles debut this week.

Of those that have run so far, Carlito Brigante looks a decent each way alternative to Mille Chief at around the 12/1 mark. He was very disappointing on his hurdles debut on heavy ground before showing much improved form in his two starts since, including lowering the colours of the well fancied Alaivan by 11 lengths.

Back Carlito Brigante at 12/1 with William Hill for the Triumph Hurdle and get a free £25 bet

The Kim Muir Challenge Cup is named after fallen calvary office Kim Muir and was first run in 1946. It is a handicap race and is only open to amateur jockeys. The Kim Muir is one of the strongest trend races at the Cheltenham Festival as illustrated by EBA Forum member Stav’s legendary post on the race in 2006.

The winner of the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir is generally a horse with a number of placed efforts to it’s name but doesn’t often win. One placed plodders are worth keeping on your side!

Kim Muir Challenge Cup Details

Trip: 3 miles

Class: Class B

First Run: 1946

Next running: Thursday 18th March 2010

Kim Muir Challenge Cup Trends

25 of the last 29 winners were aged 8 or older.

16 of the last 20 winners have carried 11st or less.

9 of the last 11 winners were rated 128 or less.

2010 Kim Muir Challenge Cup

The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup is another of those races where the Ante Post market doesn’t take shape until a couple of weeks before the event proper. While there are no horses currently available to back for the Kim Muir, we can look at the best ways to narrow down the field. You can also visit our horse racing forum for Cheltenham Festival Tips on the Kim Muir between now and the Festival.

One trainer that knows how to win a Kim Muir is Nicky Henderson. He has managed two 1-2’s in the last decade. The Pipe yard have also won two renewals in the last ten years.

Favourites don’t have a particularly great record with two winners in the last ten years and big priced winners are certainly not uncommon with winners at 40/1 and 33/1 twice in the same period.

Betfair offer a free £25 bet on the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup to new clients