Archive for the ‘Horse Racing Tips’ Category

Reason One - The pace

Khyber Kim will be suited by the way the Champion Hurdle is run. A very strong pace is assured in the Champion Hurdle which will suit Khyber Kim down to the ground. He will come bursting through late and mug the Irish trained horses on the line in true dramatic Cheltenham fashion.

Reason Two - Stable Knowledge

Although it’s taken a bit of time, the Twiston Davies yard have managed to unlock the secret to getting the best from Khyber Kim, something Nicky Henderson was unable to do. He needs to be fresh and produced as late as possible during his races. He certainly comes into the race fresh having been off the track since 12th December and Paddy Brennan knows exactly how Khyber Kim needs to be ridden.

Reason Three - Nigel Twiston Davies

Nigel Twiston Davies is yet to win one of the feature championship races at the Cheltenham Festival, it’s about time that changed. He had two winners at last year’s Festival which is his best return since 1993 and I fancy him to improve on that in 2010.

Reason Four - Paddy Brennan

Paddy Brennan loves the horse and looked elated after victory in the Boylesports.com International. ‘He is the most extraordinary two-miler I have ever ridden. He has so much speed.’ Brennan is one of the best jockeys in NH racing and will be desperate to make the most of his chance.

Reason Five - Proven at Cheltenham

Khyber Kim has already won twice at Cheltenham this season and last time had Celestial Halo, Medermit and Punjabi all behind him. That was the second time he has beaten Medermit this season. His form is rock solid.

There you have it, the five reasons Khyber Kim will win the 2010 Champion Hurdle. A slightly less scientific 6th is the fact it would be a great story for Nicky Henderson with his strong hand to be beaten by a horse he couldn’t handle!

Click here to back Khyber Kim for the 2010 Champion Hurdle with PartyBets and get a £25 free bet

There are a few horses running at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival that should only have to turn up to win going on their prices in the Ante Post markets. Let’s have a closer look at these so called bankers and see if they really are the certainties that some punters believe.

Dunguib in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Anyone remember Cousin Vinny last year? While he wasn’t quite as short in the market as Dunguib is, on the day of the race he was punted like defeat was out of the question. His form going into the race was not too dissimilar to Dunguib’s this season, but he could only manage a rather disappointing 5th place finish.

Visually, Dunguib has looked very impressive. His unbeaten run now goes back eight races and bookmakers have reacted by making him a 4/5 chance for the 2010 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. While his obvious chance of victory is there for all to see, his short price at this stage makes little appeal as a betting proposition.

All Dunguib’s wins over hurdles thus far have been on heavy ground. Although he handled the Cheltenham course on good to soft ground when winning the 2009 Champion Bumper, we have no evidence he is capable of the same when those obstacles come into play.

There are so many unexposed horses in the field that could be anything, the odds on chance Dunguib isn’t for me.

Verdict – No Banker

Master Minded in the Queen Mother Champion Chase

Bar an uncharacteristic last fence hiccup, Master Minded looked back to his best when winning the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Saturday. He’s won the last two renewals of the Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase and I can’t see that anything other than a fall is going to stop him making it a hat trick of victories in the race.

The opposition he faces at Cheltenham are generally exposed horses who just aren’t good enough to beat a Master Minded at his best. Even slightly less than his best could be good enough to win.

Verdict – Banker

Big Bucks in the World Hurdle

Paul Nicholls has always held Big Bucks in high regard and was very disappointed he didn’t live up to his high expectations over fences. However, since he has switched to hurdling, he has been a revelation. He’s unbeaten in six hurdle races since he made the switch in January of last year and that includes victory in last year’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle.

The 2010 renewal of the World Hurdle does have a few interesting contenders with the likes of Tidal Bay sticking to hurdles after his win in the Betfair Cleeve Hurdle and Alan King’s Karabak looking as though he’s improving and is still unexposed over this trip. The problem they all have is Big Bucks just has so much in hand of them all on official figures. While the market leader’s price makes for some good each way bets elsewhere in the field, it’s hard to see anything other than back to back World Hurdle titles for Big Bucks.

Verdict – Banker

Kauto Star in the Gold Cup

Following Denman’s disappointing effort in the Aon Chase at Newbury, Kauto Star’s position at the head of the betting for the 2010 Gold Cup has becoming even stronger and he’s now generally a 4/6 chance to make it three Gold Cup wins from four attempts.

While Kauto’s Cheltenham record is good, he is never 100% happy there. The fact he is such a good horse means he has been able to win two Gold Cups even though the track doesn’t play to his strengths. In his favour this year is a lack of decent opposition. It looks a weaker field than last year with no Exotic Dancer or Neptune Collonges but odds on for a horse that doesn’t enjoy himself at Cheltenham isn’t for me despite his previous Gold Cup wins.

Denman isn’t out of it on the back of one poor run and Cooldine is a better horse than what we have seen so far this season so there are a couple of realistic challengers. As nice as it would be to see Kauto win a third Gold Cup in 2010, I have a strange feeling it isn’t going to happen.

Verdict – No Banker

On what we have seen so far this season, all four horses are entitled to win. The thing is, racing isn’t that straightforward and I honestly can’t see the bookmakers not getting a couple of these good things turned over one way or another. It might not be pretty and there are sure to be some hard luck stories involved but it would not surprise me if two or more of these odds on shots get beaten.

The feature event of the whole meeting, the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup, takes place as the 4th race on the final day of the Festival. The Gold Cup is the biggest National Hunt race of the season in terms of both value and prestige. The race first took place in 1924.

Favourites have a very strong record in the Gold Cup with five having won in the last decade, the biggest priced winner in that same period being 15/2. An outsider hasn’t won the race since See More Business was victorious in 1999 at 16/1.

Horses that win the Cheltenham Gold Cup on more than one occasion are not uncommon. In the last ten years two runners have won the race five times between them. Kauto Star was victorious in 2009 and 2007, and Best Mate won the race in 2002, 2003 and 2004.

Kauto Star became the first horse to regain the Gold Cup crown in 2009 after his reverse by stable mate Denman the previous year. Kauto goes for an unprecedented fourth Gold Cup title in 2010.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Details

Trip: 3 miles 2 ½ furlongs

Fences: 22

Class: Grade 1

First Run: 1924

Next running: Friday 19th March 2010

2010 Gold Cup Betting

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

All of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 and 9.

8 of the last 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.

8 of the last 9 winners were rated 166 or higher.

20 of the last 22 winners were placed in the first 4 on their previous outing.

2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup

It’s the usual suspects in the Ante Post market for the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup with Kauto Star and Denman dominating the betting just as they did in 2008 and just as Kauto has done for the past three years. The booking of Tony McCoy for Denman has made the 2010 clash just as fascinating as their 2008 meeting with opinion split on which of Paul Nicholls runners will take the Gold Cup this year.

On a personal level, I’ll just be watching the battle between Kauto and Denman rather than punting one of them. On all known form, they should be finishing 1st and 2nd but maybe we can find the horse to fill 3rd place and maybe even give the two market leaders a scare.

Although he was beaten receiving a lot of weight from Denman in the Hennessey and was still beaten, What A Friend’s victory in the Lexus Chase in December was impressive. The form of that win is rock solid and I’d recommend taking the 50/1 still available at Stan James at time of writing, he’s only a 20/1 chance generally. What A Friend is still improving and while he’s probably not ever going to be a star in the mould of Kauto or even Denman, he makes a lot more appeal as an each way bet than the majority of this year’s alternative contenders.

Back What A friend each way at 50/1 with Stan James and get a £25 free bet

Get more Cheltenham Festival Tips from our horse racing forum.

One of the newer races at the Cheltenham Festival having been added to the meeting in 2005, the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle is a 3 mile hurdle event for novices aged four years and older. The race is also known as the Spa Novice Hurdle.

Brit Insurance initially sponsored this event but Albert Bartlett took over in 2008, when the race also gained Grade 1 status.

From the five Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdles run so far, Tony McCoy has teamed up with Jonjo O’Neill to win two of them. In 2006 they were successful with Black Jack Ketchum, and in 2007 with Wichita Lineman. Both horses are notable for the fact they were very strong favourites.

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Details

Trip: 3 miles

Hurdles: 12

Class: Grade 1

First Run: 2005

Next running: Friday 19th March 2010

2010 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Betting

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Trends

All five winners had already run at least 3 times over hurdles.

12 of the last 13 winners and placed horses finished 1st or 2nd on their previous outing.

All five winners had previously won over a trip of at least 2m 5f.

3 of the last 5 winners had already won at Cheltenham in the same season.

2010 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Current market leader is the Tom George trained Tell Massini, who is a best priced 11/2 at time of writing, but is as short as 4/1 in some places. I generally try to oppose favourites in the Ante Post market but this is a horse I like a lot. His form is rock solid with three victories in three start starts including two at Cheltenham. He looks tough, game and can handle testing conditions. The only question mark would be if the ground came up on the quick side come race day, but there is nothing to say he couldn’t handle it. 11/2 seems very fair on all known form.

Probably the most intriguing horse in the field is the David Pipe trained Madison Du Berlais. Admittedly he also holds a Gold Cup entry on the same day but the fact he is entered for this as well is very interesting. He has been slightly disappointing over fences so far this season and if he doesn’t show some sparkle in his next likely destination, the Racing Post Chase at Kempton, there is a chance he will go for this race. Although Madison Du Berlais would be a massive trend buster, he would have a great chance against a group of novices if running to anywhere near his chase mark. He’s still available at 20/1 generally.

Visit our horse racing forum for more Cheltenham Festival tips.

Back Tell Massini at 11/2 with Totesport and get £60 in free bets

Back Madison Du Berlais at 20/1 with Skybet and get a £20 free bet

The Triumph Hurdle is a race restricted to four year old novice hurdlers. The event was previously sponsored by the Daily Express and the Elite Racing Club but has been known as the JCB Triumph Hurdle since 2002.

Winners of the Triumph Hurdle often go on to compete in the Champion Hurdle in following seasons. Persian War, Kribensis and most recently Katchit have won both events.

Alan King and Phillip Hobbs have trained two Triumph Hurdle winners each in the last six seasons.

JCB Triumph Hurdle Details

Trip: 2 miles and 1 furlong

Hurdles: 8

Class: Grade 1

First Run: 1939 (1968 as part of the Cheltenham Festival)

Next running: Friday 19th March 2010

2010 Triumph Hurdle Betting

JCB Triumph Hurdle Trends

13 of the last 15 winners had been victorious on their previous start.

15 of the last 16 winners had already won at least two races.

9 of the last 10 winners were by a Group 1 winning sire.

2010 JCB Triumph Hurdle

Current market leader for the 2010 renewal of the Triumph Hurdle is the Alan King trained Mille Chief. He was brought down on his first outing when going well but has since picked up two wins in decent novice hurdle events. Mille Chief is certainly a strong contender but whether 5/1 is value at this stage is open to debate.

Nicky Henderson has a number of entries for the race. Leading those currently is 10/1 2nd favourite According who is due to make his hurdles debut this week.

Of those that have run so far, Carlito Brigante looks a decent each way alternative to Mille Chief at around the 12/1 mark. He was very disappointing on his hurdles debut on heavy ground before showing much improved form in his two starts since, including lowering the colours of the well fancied Alaivan by 11 lengths.

Back Carlito Brigante at 12/1 with William Hill for the Triumph Hurdle and get a free £25 bet

The Ladbrokes World Hurdle is the Premier staying hurdle event of the national hunt season and it’s the feature race of day 3 at the Cheltenham Festival. The race has previously been known as the Spa Hurdle and the Stayers’ Hurdle. It was renamed the World Hurdle in 2005 and bookmaker Ladbrokes have sponsored the event since then.

Inglis Drever is the most prolific winner having been successful three times in 2005, 2007 and 2008. Prior to Inglis Drever, Baracouda had won the race twice, in 2002 and 2003.

The Paul Nicholls trained Big Bucks was an impressive winner of last year’s renewal and is a short price favourite to make in back to back wins in 2010.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle Details

Trip: 3 miles

Hurdles: 12

Class: Grade 1

First Run: 1972

Next running: Thursday 18th March 2010

2010 World Hurdle Betting

Ladbrokes World Hurdle Trends

A five year old is yet to win the World Hurdle.

There has only been one winner older than nine years.

9 of the last 10 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival.

There hasn’t been an Irish trained winner since 1995.

2010 Ladbrokes World Hurdle

Big Bucks is a rock solid 4/7 favourite and on all known form, it’s very hard to see any other result than a victory for the Paul Nicholls trained runner. He’s won his last seven races and has beaten the majority of rivals he’s going to face in the World Hurdle time and again. Big Bucks had World Hurdle second favourite Karabak well held in the Long Walk Hurdle last time out and I expect a similar result come March.

Sentry Duty is the interesting horse in the race for me. Currently around a 12/1 chance, Nicky Henderson’s charge is unexposed over the trip and won well when upped to 2m 4f at Cheltenham last time when beating Katchit and Mr Thriller with ease. He is a decent each way bet in the current Ante Post market.

Back Sentry Duty at 12/1 with Stan James and get a £25 free bet

Although it was only introduced in 2005, the Ryanair Chase, or Festival Trophy as it is also known, has quickly become one of the most popular chases contested at the Cheltenham Festival. The Ryanair is one of the races that replaced the Cathcart Challenge Cup and it has been a Grade 1 event since 2008.

The race has been won but some very talented horses so far including Our Vic in 2008 and Imperial Commander in 2009. Prior to this, Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh had teamed up to win two of the first three runnings of the Ryanair Chase.

Ryanair Chase Details

Trip: 2 miles and 5 furlongs

Fences: 17

Class: Grade 1

First Run: 2005

Next running: Thursday 18th March 2010

2010 Ryanair Chase Betting

Ryanair Chase Trends

All five winners were in the first 3 in the betting market.

All five winners had previous winning form at Cheltenham.

All five winners were placed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup or the Boylesports Gold Cup.

2010 Ryanair Chase

The Ryanair Chase usually has a very lively Ante Post market. Punters can generally work out fairly early on which horses are going to be targeting the Ryanair as the trip suits those horses who don’t quite get home over 3 miles but don’t quite have the pace for 2 miles.

Vor Por Ustedes is a horse well worth having on your shortlist. He finished second to Imperial Commander when a short priced favourite last year but both Fondmort and Our Vic finished runner up before going on to win the Ryanair in future seasons. You’re also likely to get a much better price about Alan King’s runner this year, he’s currently around a 6/1 chance. Imperial Commander is generally and 8/1 chance to repeat his victory of last year but he also has the Gold Cup as a possible target.

Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Tranquil Sea would be my fancy for the race. He landed a massive gamble for the Irish in that race and could well do the same in the Ryanair. Edward O’Grady’s runner seems to still be improving and fits the profile of a Ryanair Chase winner very well. He’s currently 6/1 joint second favourite behind Paul Nicholls Poquelin at 4/1.

Back Tranquil Sea for the Ryanair Chase with Betfred and get a free £50 bet

The Weatherbys Champion Bumper is the leading National Hunt flat race of the season. A number of runners that win or place in the Champion Bumper go on to greater success at the Cheltenham Festival as well as other top races in future seasons. Florida Pearl is probably the biggest success story to come out of the race, having won multiple Grade 1 events.

Irish horses are the ones to follow in the Champion Bumper with those trained and bred in Ireland dominating the event since it began in 1992. The race has been sponsored by Weatherbys since 1997.

Champion Bumper Details

Trip: 2 Miles

Class: Grade 1

First Run: 1992

Next running: Wednesday 17th March 2010

2010 Champion Bumper Betting

Champion Bumper Trends

Trainer Willie Mullins has saddled 6 of the last 13 winners.

The last ten renewals were won by either a five or six year old.

9 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland.

No French bred runner has ever been placed.

2010 Champion Bumper

Bumper form is harder to assess than other Novice races because the top horses tend to avoid each other and usually only have one or two runs before arriving at the Festival. At this stage, a number of the leading contenders are likely to not have even seen the racetrack yet so it makes any Ante Post betting more difficult.

If you are having and Ante Post wager on the Champion Bumper, the big plus point is there are some very big prices available on runners from the top yards. Although it’s a tough puzzle to solve, bookmakers always get the race priced up early because it’s a popular one for race course whispers and rumours about the best horses. Look for Irish bred as well as Irish trained runners and concentrate on horses aged 5 or 6 years old.

Tavern Times trained by Thomas Mullins, brother of Bumper King Willie Mullins, is just about favourite with most firms. He was a well backed favourite on his only start to date at Fairyhouse in October and justified his odds in very impressive fashion. There is a certain amount of guess work involved at this stage but he does meet a number of the trends and it’s not often you get 12/1 about the favourite less than two months before the big race. It could look a very good price come the 17th March.

Back Tavern Times at 12/1 with Betfred and get a free £50 bet

The Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is a novice hurdle race which is restricted to four year olds novice hurdlers. The race is named after the late Fred Winter who was a successful jockey and trainer. Winter won 17 races as a jockey and 28 as a trainer at the Cheltenham Festival.

There have been five runnings of the Fred Winter Hurdle to date, four of those renewals have gone to horses starting at double figure odds including 40/1 shot Shamayoun. Gaspara was the only strongly fancied winner so far having won as the 9/2 joint favourite in 2007.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Details

Trip: 2 miles

Hurdles: 8

Class: Grade 3

First Run: 2005

Next running: Wednesday 17th March 2010

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Trends

Four of the last five winners won on their previous outing.

All of the last five winners didn’t win until at least their third hurdles start.

All of the last five winners were by a Group One winning sire.

2010 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

This isn’t a race that makes a lot of appeal to me personal as a betting proposition and certainly not this early in the season. There isn’t an Ante Post market on the Fred Winter Hurdle as yet and we don’t have a massive amount of data to work with after the race only having been run five times.

From what we do have to go on, the ideal contender would have won last time out, be by a Group One winning sire and be rated between 124 and 133. Be sure to visit our horse racing forum for tips and advice on the Fred Winter as we get closer to the Cheltenham Festival.

Get a free £25 bet on the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle from Ladbrokes

Originally known as the National Hunt Two Mile Champion Chase, the Queen Mother Champion Chase was given its current title in 1980 due to the Queen Mother’s support of the sport. Seasons Holidays have sponsored the race since 2007.

The Queen Mother is the feature event on day two of the Cheltenham Festival and it’s the main target for the top two mile chasers. Dual winners are not uncommon in the Queen Mother Chase and previous winners of the Arkle often go on to perform well here.

Paul Nicholls Master Minded is aiming for a hat trick of wins in the 2010 renewal after victories in both 2008 and 2009. His 2008 performance was rated as one of the best of all time.

Queen Mother Champion Chase Details

Trip: 2 miles

Fences: 12

Class: Grade 1

First Run: 1959

Next running: Wednesday 17th March 2010

2010 Queen Mother Champion Chase Betting

Queen Mother Champion Chase Trends

Nine of the last eleven Arkle winners finished 1st or 2nd in this race the following year.

Only one winner older than nine in the last ten years.

Only one winner at double figure odds in the last ten years.

2010 Queen Mother Champion Chase

The 2010 Queen Mother Champion Chase revolves around Master Minded. If Paul Nicholls has his stable star back to peak condition he should make it three wins from three attempts. With the trainer’s record at getting horses back to their best after setbacks, it would be foolish to say Nicholls won’t do it again. Whether you are prepared to take 7/4 about him achieving that is another matter. It could look a great price come the 17th March because Master Minded is very likely to start at short odds on but there may be a better each way alternative.

Forpadydeplasterer is currently around a 9/1 chance and makes plenty of each way appeal. Last season’s Arkle winner had seconditis until his victory at the Festival when he found extra on the big stage. Following the same pattern this season, I fancy Forpadydeplasterer to be right in the mix in this year’s Queen Mother Chase. He can continue the strong trend of previous Arkle winners.

Back Forpadydeplasterer with Paddy Power and get a £20 free bet