Cheltenham Festival 2009 – Gold Cup Preview
The 2008 Gold Cup was one of the biggest showdowns for many years with stable mates Denman and Kauto Star going head to head. Denman’s Hennessey performance was breathtaking, devastating even, but I still fancied Kauto Star’s turn of foot would get the better of Denman in the Gold Cup. How wrong I was. Denman went to the front with a circuit to go and galloped his rivals into the ground. Kauto Star could not live with the mighty Denman and all being well I can’t see the result being any different in 2009.
The one thing Kauto Star does have going for him is the fact Denman has had problems with an irregular heartbeat recently and will likely be out of action until February. I wouldn’t want to be taking even money about a horse that has heart problems, especially one the size of Denman, no matter how impressive he was last season.
I always struggle to see horses come back and win Grade 1 races, especially a Gold Cup, once beaten in the same race. I can’t imagine Kauto Star, having won the race in 2007 and been beaten in 2008, regaining the title of Gold Cup winner in 2009. I think I’m right in saying it’s never been done. If anyone could achieve this feat it’s Paul Nicholls, but I just don’t see it. Best Mate was an enigma winning three Gold Cups on the spin but prior to his achievement, the last horse to win more than one Gold Cup was L’Escargot in 1970/71. At the current prices of Evs for Denman and 7/2 for Kauto Star, I’d be looking to oppose the front two in the market.
Before Denman burst onto the scene, Exotic Dancer was considered the biggest threat to Kauto Star winning a 2nd Gold Cup. Unfortunately he had an interrupted preparation and other than a 1/2 length 2nd to Kauto at Haydock in the Betfair Chase, Jonjo O’Neill’s charge just didn’t look the same horse as he was the previous season. 20/1 might appeal to some Tony McCoy fans but I’d be disappointed if we don’t see one or two new challengers progress past Exotic Dancer.
Neptune Collonges is probably the most realistic challenger to Denman and Kauto Star. He was only just beaten into third by Kauto Star in the 2008 Gold Cup and made it a 1-2-3 for trainer Paul Nicholls. Neptune then went on to win the Punchestown Gold Cup for the second year in succession. While he’d struggle to beat a fully fit Denman, I think he’d get the better of Kauto Star this time around. At 7/1, he’s a touch of value.
Of the others, it’s hard to see any of them winning a Gold Cup. Albertas Run is probably the most interesting of the likely participants. His victory in last season’s Royal & SunAlliance Chase was impressive, but that was still some way off what it would take to win a Gold Cup. Tony McCoy could well choose this mount over Exotic Dancer and with a bit of improvement, he could get himself involved in the places. Certainly worth a small each way bet at 16/1 or thereabouts.
2009 Gold Cup Betting - Get the lastest Gold Cup Odds.
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2009 Gold Cup Tips - Tips on the 2009 Cheltenham Gold Cup from the EBA Forum.
Tags: cheltenham 2009, cheltenham gold cup, denman, kauto star
November 20th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Nice write up. You seem to talk yourself out of Exotic Dancer but with a very encouraging run first time out this season I wouldnt want to right him off. Just taken the 33/1 with bet365 on Exotic Dancer for the Gold Cup. For a while he was the second best chaser around. Perhaps when Denmen came on the scene he became the third best. But even so 33/1 on arguably the third best chaser out there? He is rated just 5lb below Kauto and lost by just teh half length in the Betfair Chase last year. This year he seems to have had a better preperation and I wouldnt be surprised to see him run Kauto close again at Haydock on Saturday. Unfortunately the Gold Cup market sees lots of withdrawals through the season so to take any short price this early doesnt make sense. Even with a fully fit Kauto and Denman at Cheltenham - 33/1 on a fully fit Exotic Dancer looks huge.