The EBA Blog

The Eclipse Stakes, or Coral Eclipse as it is now more commonly know, is a Group 1 flat race run over a trip of 1m2f and takes place at Sandown Park at the beginning of July each year. The race is named after the famous 18th century racehorse Eclipse and has been sponsored by Coral bookmakers since 1976.

The 2009 Coral Eclipse Stakes sees the all conquering Sea The Stars as a very strong favourite. John Oxx’s charge has won both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby so this trip of 1m2f should hold no problems.

Aidan O’Brien’s Rip Van Winkle is also prominent in the market. Usual pilot Johnny Murtagh is banned so Jimmy Fortune has picked up a great spare ride. He is very confident on the chances of his mount;

“Dropping back to a mile and a quarter should suit Rip Van Winkle and I think he’s got a great chance.”

Conduit from the Michael Stoute yard holds a similar chance to Rip Van Winkle according to the betting market. For me, his overall form has a more solid look to it and he could well be the value play in the race at around the 4/1 mark.

Coral Eclipse Trends
Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years.

Avoid 3yo favourites.

Aidan O’Brien has won 4 of the last 10 renewals.

Avoid horses aged 6 and over.

Sir Michael Stoute has won the Eclipse 5 times.

Coral Eclipse Betting(Prices from Paddy Power)
Sea The Stars 8/11
Rip Van Winkle 4/1
Conduit 4/1
Cima De Triomphe 8/1
Twice Over 16/1
Jukebox Jury 50/1
100/1 Bar

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The bet365 Old Newton Cup is a Class 2 Heritage Handicap run over a trip of 1m4f and is open to horses aged 4 years and older. It’s Haydock Park’s longest standing race and there is £85,000 in added prize money on offer. The 2009 Old Newton Cup takes place on Saturday 4th July at 3.30pm.

Luca Cumani has dominated the race over the years and from the last five renewals, he has managed three winners and one second place. Cumani is represented by Falcativ in the 2009 event. This Bay Colt has won 3 of his 8 starts to date and looked to be going very much the right way before disappointing at Doncaster last time out. He doesn’t look well handicapped on the back of that run but you can’t ignore Cumani’s record in this race so we have to respect the chances of Falcativ.

Mark Johnston is very well represented at this stage with five entries. The pick of those looks to be Drill Sergeant who won the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Ascot last time out. He’s paid for his consistency this season by not getting any respite from the handicapper but he still managed to win that ultra competitive race at Ascot so who is to say the horse can’t repeat the trick in the Old Newton Cup.

Old Newton Cup Trends
4 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on their previous start.

Just 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years.

The last 10 winners had all previously won over a minimum of 11 furlongs.

Luca Cumani has won 3 of the last 5 renewals.

Of Mark Johnston’s last 10 runners, none have made the frame.

3 of the last 9 winners were beaten in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

Old Newton Cup Betting (Prices from bet365)
Hevelius 8/1
Yes Mr President 8/1
Drill Sergeant 8/1
Hatton Flight 8/1
Red Merlin 10/1
Spring Jim 12/1
Falcativ 12/1
Charm School 12/1
Dansili Dancer 12/1
14/1 Bar

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The Northumberland Plate, as known as the Pitmen’s Derby, is one of the world’s richest two mile handicaps. It takes place at Newcastle Racecourse at the end of June. It’s a race that can often through up a surprise with only 2 winning favourites in the last 10 years, one of which was a joint favourite. Runners carrying over 9st tend to struggle, with only one winner in the last 12 years. The race is run over a trip of 2 miles and is open to horses aged 3 years and above.

Betting for the 2009 renewal of the Northumberland Plate is headed by Royal Ascot winner Judgethemoment who is a general 7/1 chance. Last year’s winner Arc Bleu is also strongly fancied and sits just behind the market leader at 8/1. Trainer Tony Martin has Jamie Spencer in the saddle this time, last year Adrian Nicholls rode the horse to victory.

Henry Cecil is keen on the chances of his runner Ajaan as long as the ground isn’t on the fast side. He finished 2nd in the Chester Cup last time and holds strong claims if the going comes right.

Northumberland Plate Trends
7 of the last 10 winners came from a single figure draw.
7 of the last 10 winners achieved a top 3 finish on their latest start.
9 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 38 days.
7 of the last 10 winners had previously won over at least 1m6f.

Northumberland Plate Betting
Judgethemoment 7/1
Arc Bleu 8/1
Ajaan 8/1
Record Breaker 8/1
Hendersyde 10/1
Keenes Day 10/1
Wells Lyrical 10/1
12/1 Bar

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The St James’s Palace Stakes is the biggest race of day one on the Royal Ascot card. It’s a Group 1 event run over a trip of a mile and is open to 3 year olds. The race has been dominated by Aidan O’Brien in recent years – he has trained the winner of 5 of the last 9 renewals.

O’Brien has a strong contender once again with the odds on favourite Mastercraftsman. The trends below should help us decide if he’s backable price at around the 4/5 mark.

St James’s Palace Stakes Trends
6 of the last 10 favourites have won.

7 of the last 10 winners had won a Group 1 or Group 2 as a juvenile.

9 of the last 15 winners had previously won a Group 1.

Aidan O’Brien has won 5 of the last 9 renewals.

6 of the last 10 winners had won a European 2000 Guineas.

12 of the last 13 British and Irish trained winners had run in a 2000 Guineas.

St James’s Palace Stakes Conclusion
The trends certainly support Mastercraftsman’s case. He finished a very respectable 6th behind Sea The Stars in the English 2000 Guineas and then went on to destroy the field in the Irish equivalent. The only minor negative I can see is the fact he seems to thrive on heavy ground but then he has also won in decent fashion on good to firm as a 2yo.

The one I think is the value bet in the race is Sir Michael Stoute’s Evasive. There was very little between him and Mastercraftsman in the 2000 Guineas and at a best priced 6/1, makes more appeal to me than the 5/4 about the O’Brien runner. That was his first attempt at a mile, he’s fresher than most of these and there is very likely improvement to come.

Delegator could be the fly in the ointment. On his 1 and a half length 2nd to See The Stars at Newmarket, he’d be the one to beat. The problem is you need to forgive his run in the Irish 2000 Guineas. It was on heavy ground which probably wasn’t to his liking but it really was a shocking effort. I’d probably want a bit bigger than 4/1 about the chance he’ll come back to form in a race of this standard.

Suggested Bet
1pt win Evasive @ 6/1 with BlueSq

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The 2009 Royal Ascot meeting is almost upon us and we thought it was a good idea to share our top five Royal Ascot tips. The Royal Ascot meeting is one of the most popular in the British horse racing calendar and is just as well known for it’s high fashion and famous attendees as it is for the actual horse racing. Here are our five tips to make Ascot as enjoyable and profitable as it can be!

Ignore Aidan O’Brien at your peril
The O’Brien stable cleaned up at last year’s Royal Ascot meeting. The stable have been in fine form so far this season and I’d expect more of the same this time around even though stable jockey Johnny Murtagh is suspended for 2 days. Aidan O’Brien has a particularly good record in the Coventry Stakes having won with Henrythenavigator, Statute Of Liberty, Landseer, Fasliyev, and Harbour Master in recent years. He is represented by Steinbeck in the 2009 Coventry Stakes renewal and the horse warrants respect.

Prince of Wales Stakes a race for punters
A Group 1 race contested over 1m2f, the Prince of Wales stakes is a punter’s paradise with the last 8 winners all having been single figure odds. All winners had also won a Group 1 contest previously in that period. Look for horses that are proven at this trip.

Don’t be afraid of an outsider on Saturday
The Golden Jubilee Stakes, which takes place on the Saturday of the 2009 Royal Ascot meeting, is a race where you can look for a big priced runner to back with only one winning favourite since 1997 and many at very big prices in that period including last years winner Kingsgate Native at 33/1.

Watch your weight
Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup has seen only 2 winners carry more than 9st 5lbs to victory in the last decade. Similarly, Saturday’s Wokingham Stakes has produced just one winner carrying over 9st 6lbs in the last decade. Look for runners in both of these events that are carrying less than the weights stated and you’ll make your chances of winner finding a lot more likely.

Keep John Best on your side
Last year’s Royal Ascot was very special for trainer John Best with Flashman Papers winning the Windsor Castle Stakes at 100/1 as well as Kingsgate Native’s victory in the Golden Jubilee Stakes at 33/1. Although the Kent based trainer is sure to be on the radar of my punters this time around, his runners will likely still be available at decent prices when up against some of the bigger yards.

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I’m not at all impressed with the Oaks field this year but there will be a winner so we might as well have a go at trying to find her.

The Epsom Oak is a Group 1, 1m4f flat race for 3yo fillies and makes up one of the five Classic races.

It’s a race where you must respect any runners from the Henry Cecil yard and this time around he saddles Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Midday. This filly brings some very solid form into the race and can be backed at around 7/2 currently. Cecil won the 2007 renewal with Light Shift.

Rainbow View was all the rage in the ante post market for the 1000 Guineas but she could not reproduce her 2yo form and finished a disappointing 5th. Trainer John Gosden put that effort down to going conditions with his filly requiring a bit of give underfoot. There is a bit of rain forecast in the next few days but probably not enough to alter the ground that drastically before Friday afternoon.

Market leader Sariska put herself right in the Oaks picture with victory in the Musidora Stakes at York. Jamie Spencer’s mount showed an impressive turn of foot to win as she liked against some decent rivals including Michael Stoute’s Enticement and one of her Oaks rivals in High Heeled. Her price is probably on the short side but there can be no argument, the Musidora performance was very good indeed.

Of the others, Oh Goodness Me makes most appeal at a generous price of 14/1. She has some very solid looking form to her name including a 3rd in the Irish 1000 Guineas behind Again. She is definitely the solid each way bet in the race.

EBA Forum member richy has written an excellent Oaks preview which you can read via the link below

Richy’s Oaks Preview

No winner of the Scoop 6 last week means the win fund now stands at £78,369 and the bonus fund is worth £168,992.

The Scoop 6 races for this week are as follows;
2.05 Haydock
2.20 Goodwood
2.35 Haydock
2.50 Goodwood
3.15 York
3.45 York

Blue Square usually offer 10% cashback on the Scoop 6 and also give new clients a £100 free bet.

Click here to visit Blue Square and claim your £100 free bet

You can get Scoop 6 tips, analysis and strategy from our horse racing forum as well as using our Scoop 6 Guide.

The less said about last week’s attempt the better with only one winner and a non runner. There were no winners of last Saturday’s Scoop 6 but 390 people managed to land the place money, each receiving £139.40. The bonus fund was also won so now stands at £40,803.

Here are our thoughts on this week’s Scoop 6 races. It’s a slimmed down version this week which some of you may think is a good thing!

Haydock 1.55 – A huge field go to post for this grade 3 hurdle. Howard Johnson’s Caravel looks interesting now he goes handicapping having won 3 novice hurdles on the bounce. Right at the bottom of the weights, Hot Diamond could go well at a big price.

Lingfield 2.10 – This race looks as though it could be quite straightforward for the Walter Swinburn trained Laudatory. He won well last time and 83 doesn’t seem like a harsh mark to follow up from. At bigger odds, course and distance winner Kaabari makes some appeal.

Ascot 2.15 – It look like a more impossible Scoop 6 than normal with the 3rd leg, the Victoria Cup, having 29 runners. Prescription under Seb Sanders warrants respect but this filly is too short in the market for my liking on what she has achieved thus far. Mr Macattack gets in here on a nice weight and won in very impressive fashion last time albeit in a weak race. Fishforcompliments should go well under his talented apprentice after finishing 2nd to Mr Hardy last time. That horse has franked the form by winning again this week.

Nottingham 2.25 – I’m not a fan of these longer distance handicaps really. Sri Kuantan won last time but has been a bit inconsistent in previous starts and is probably worth taking on again. Silk Hall should go well even under top weight but at a bigger price, Four Miracles can bounce back to form now dropped in grade.

Haydock 3.05 – Outsider of the field Sammy The Snake was quite well supported on his first run for sometime at Kempton recently. Although he finished last of 5, he did show that he still retains a decent level of ability and is a big price for me at 20/1. Top weight Appalachian Trail won this race last year and although he has disappointed since, he’s worth chancing off this mark.

Lingfield 3.45 – A decent fillies stakes to finish this weeks Scoop 6 with £65,000 in prize money on offer. I’m very keen on the chances of the William Haggas runner Damaniyat Girl. She put up a great performance chasing home Fantasia at Newmarket last time and the Haggas stable had a decent winner at Chester on Friday.

Blue Square usually offer 10% cashback on the Scoop 6 and also give new clients a £100 free bet.

Click here to visit Blue Square and claim your £100 free bet

You can get Scoop 6 tips, analysis and strategy from our horse racing forum as well as using our Scoop 6 Guide.

Last week’s Nap Twist Magic won in impressive fashion and we also managed to find Bet365 Gold Cup winner Hennessy. There were three winning tickets of last Saturday’s Scoop 6 with each landing a huge payout of £310,408.39. They all have a chance at this week’s bonus fund of £399,097.

Here are our thoughts on this week’s Scoop 6 races.

Newmarket 2.00 – This year’s Suffolk Handicap is an interesting race in that we have a number of unexposed horses that could be better than their handicap marks suggest. One horse that has been there and done it is last year’s winner Proponent. He’s been slightly disappointing since that victory but he’s back down to a mark of 94, only 4lbs higher than the win in ‘08 and the fact he’s back over a mile is also a positive for me. He probably needed the run last time and a tissue price of 16/1 looks very juicy. Bottom weight Mohathab could be well in off a mark of 82. He took my eye last year when finishing 2nd in a couple of maidens under Seb and has since left John Gosden to join the Boyle yard. He won a reasonable maiden at Lingfield last month and could well get involved off a light weight here.

Goodwood 2.20 – A horrible little handicap to get us underway at Goodwood. Likely favourite King Supreme is up 6lbs for his win at Brighton last month and would be a horse I’d like to take on normally but the opposition doesn’t look especially strong. Mark Tompkins’ runner Mystery Star has put up a couple of decent efforts this year but hasn’t managed to win and up 5lbs in the handicap isn’t likely to. The one that makes most appeal is top weight King Olav. He disappointed last time but his 2nd to Philatelist at Kempton in March reads well and I fancy Seb Sanders to give this horse the strong treatment he needs.

Goodwood 2.55 – This is quite a good little Listed race and one in which I fancy the chances of the Roger Charlton trained Scuffle. She was a bit disappointing at Kempton last time but probably needed the run and should show marked improvement here. For me, the main danger is likely to come from the runner from the Clive Cox yard, Perfect Star.

Newmarket 3.10 – The 2000 Guineas has been dominated by the Irish in recent years and they look to have a strong had again in 2009. Rip Van Winkle, Mastercraftsman and Sea The Stars all hail from the Emerald Isle and are all single figures in the betting market. Mastercraftsman is the one I feel best equipped to take the big race spoils back to Ireland this time around. Although all the talk is about Rip Van Winkle, I much prefer the profile of Pat Smullen’s mount and Mastercraftsman is a very fair price at 4/1 and bigger. Of those at double figures, I would be really please to see Lord Shanakill run a big race. He was a model of consistency last season and only disappointed when taken off his feet over 5f at Doncaster. This step up to a mile should suit and he can finish in the 1st three.

Goodwood 3.30 – Peter Island was the one that stuck out like a sore thumb immediately I looked at this race and I’m going to stick with the runner from the Gallagher yard. Chris Catlin’s mount is a course and distance winner and won in impressive fashion at Leicester last time out. A 7lb rise doesn’t look too bad and I think he can lead from the gates and make it back to back wins. Aye Aye Digby could pose the biggest threat. Henry Candy’s gelding ran well on his seasonal reappearance at Folkstone last month and is on a winning mark.

Newmarket 3.45 – Maybe it’s my heart ruling my head slightly but I really can’t see any reason to oppose Borderlescott in this year’ renewal of the Palace House Stakes. He’s one of the most consistent, genuine horses in training, goes well fresh and has been placed in all of his last ten starts. He won the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes here last August and I can’t see any reason to desert him in this Group 3 contest.

Blue Square usually offer 10% cashback on the Scoop 6 and also give new clients a £100 free bet.

Click here to visit Blue Square and claim your £100 free bet

You can get Scoop 6 tips, analysis and strategy from our horse racing forum as well as using our Scoop 6 Guide.

Aidan O’Brien is the king of the 2000 Guineas with four victories in the last ten years. Rock Of Gibraltar in 2002, Footstepsinthesand in 2005, George Washington in 2006 and last year’s winner Henrythenavigator have made O’Brien the man to fear in the Newmarket showpiece.

The Irish trainer’s horses are often allowed to go off at decent odds as Henrythenavigator winning at 11/1 in 2008 demonstrates. His only winner at cramped odds was 2006 incumbent George Washington at 6/4.

This year O’Brien goes to war with 5 runners, although the participation of Rip Van Winkle has been open to some debate in the last week or so. This horse looked very impressive when winning the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown but disappointed badly in the Dewhurst and although that wouldn’t put me off on it’s own, I feel he’s being priced up very short on reputation whereas other have solid form in the book.

Of all Aidan’s entries, the one I like most is Mastercraftsman. His best performance for me came in the Group 1 Independent Waterford Wedgwood Phoenix Stakes which was on good to firm ground, the likely going for Saturday’s big race. He was a little disappointing on his last start when 4th behind Naaqoos at Longchamp at the end of last season but I’m always prepared to forgive horses from the O’Brien stable a bad run at the end of a campaign.

A number of his 2 year olds have followed this pattern but Aidan O’Brien has a knack of getting them back to 100% for the start of their 3 year old campaign and I expect Mastercraftsman to be another example of this.

It’s always nice to see one of the smaller stables get a result in the 2000 Guineas and I’d imagine something will pop up in the places at a huge price as is often the case here but I’d expect O’Brien to do it again.